How Do Options Make Predictions?

Probably a guy hiding under the skirt, one of the high count BS posters > 3k+! using disguised alias. U should know!

 

MAESTRO, I’m a lurker for the most part on this board, but have traded for years and design my own systems, in a way a bit of a ‘Trading Loner’, that is, build all my own stuff from my own research, but nothing rocket science.
I use as a programmer one of the most respected Ambroker program writers, I live close by him and use and visit him very regularly.
I won’t mention his name as I don’t wish to draw attention his way. (some will obviously think I’m talking BS)

Anyway, the point I wish to make is, I follow your comments intently.
You rank in my opinion near the top for quality posts in thought content.

I have for the most part no idea what you are talking about, ie it’s too advanced for me.
However I very much appreciate your opinions, I don’t use them in my trading as I have my own path, however, please don’t get upset by the wankers, life is full of them, these guys love to destroy what they can when they can, similar to arsonists.
A real shame.

Again, you do have admirers, I think you do a fantastic job.

 

Welcome back!

I was just about to go through PinTheStrike's previous posts to try to figure out who he was (knowledgable posters are few and far between here on ET) when I saw your post.

The reason that Maestro posts infrequently is that for months after his twice yearly courses of electroshock therapy, he is too confused to post. And just as he gets back into it, he has to return to Lakeveiw for another round.

 

I think you, Maestro, Nitro, and Mark Brown should get together in the day room for a game of bridge. Maestro can talk abot his self-awarded PhD's, Mark can talk about his imaginary Cray, Nitro can wax philosphical on seventh-moment risk in short OTM vanilla put positions, and you can brag about your 100% accurate market calls.

 

Emilio my man!

 

LOL MAESTRO this is a great thread... has it all.. option premiums, "swarm behavior", golden ratios.. hahaaa

 

A bit more seriously now...what will you see/get if you normalize the entire option chain (including the strikes) by the current price of the underlying? Also, if someone presented you with such 'normalized' chains for different underlyings, -without disclosing to you, at first, their current prices—will you still be able to trade effectively?
~Bben

 

How Do Options Make Predictions?


Options don't make predictions. People do.

 

K/S is done all the time as a moneyness measure.

Vega/S doesn't make sense imo, but K*Vega does.

 

You surely not going to get full marks for this very incomplete (and parial) answer. What about C/S etc..
~Bben