Is this tiny return, easy to achieve over one year???? * 1.86% on 1000$, means 18.6$ profits. Are you going to be satisfied by doing 18.6$ or a little bit more for at least one full month? Will you not think that "if I just did a tenfold position sizing, I'd net 186$?" If you manage to have the patience to accumulate in $ terms, tiny profits, say to you 80% goal, aka 80 000 and generate 1 488$. what will be your thoughts ? Up the size and be done to 100k in one go? Why not open a journal, and record here, what 1.86% means when trading, and how in effect you manage to reach it daily, every day, without any losing day?
Exactly! The only difference is that in shorter timeframes the moves are smaller, but that is compensated by the leverage you can increase. Timeframes are irrelevant for patterns, what works in dailies will work also in hourly's.
As I'm here, the financial markets are designed for those with capital, time and resources, retail have none of them so they use leverage, but the more leverage you use the more perfection you require in your setup. Only 0.25% of the worlds population are millionaires, 99% of people who seek to trade fail, of those 1% most only generate 1-2% return per month. That means you need $100,000s in capital to quit your day job, people trade in the margins of the whipsaws within the institutional rebalancing at all timeframes. If you take $1,000 and compound at triple digit returns for 20yrs you will become a billionaire, only 2,000 people in the world have been consistent enough to achieve it. For what you want you need to have the knowledge of someone who is at least an UHNWI, of which there are only around 200,000 in the world at last estimates. So, can you perfect not just your strategy but your entire life to be that of an UHNWI, because that is exactly what you want to do. Which means simply this, you want to compound at 12.8% per week over 40weeks with no withdrawls. The methodology that work on now trades at 1second and 10second timeframes, and sells for €10mn, the indicators are another €10mn, to launch new funds targeting 15-20% per week returns but we average out to triple digits over the year, not 9,900% return, unless you're a broker the markets punish greed. The only way you're going to gain HFT knowledge is selling your soul to someone like Virtu and hoping you can get close enough to the strategy and architecture. Retail are funny creatures.
kudos, inspiring story. this is an informative reply. it consist of a statement of fact and where to go to verify it. I am assuming the book has an index. ________________ ps verified off the internet http://www.bookcaps.com/the-big-sho...pital-unlikely-captitalists.html#.WOD5Lrg9orA
A wise gentleman told me once that "losing traders focus on the money and winning traders focus on trading their edge". Forget this 1,000 to 100,000 nonsense and keep focusing on trying to develop your trading edge. Then learn proper money management to take "risk of ruin" out of concern.
OP, if you were trying to do this in today's market using a single position, your best chance of success in my opinion would be a bet on accounting fraud bankrupting a company in the space of a year (astronomically unlikely for trader to be able to pick this company correctly in advance, but let's see the outcome anyway): Bear Stearns stock went from $159 to $2 in 365 day during the crisis. When Bear stock was at $159: Put strike price: $60 Put expiry: 1-year Cost of put: 16 cents $.16 * 63 contracts * 100 = $1,008 initial outlay 1 year forward: Bear stock price: $5 Value of put contracts: $342,468 Bear stock price needed to accomplish $100,000 goal: $45 per share ---------------------------------------- So yes, it is doable - if you can predict the next large cap, low volatility stock that is about to collapse 70%+ in the next 12 months. If you figure it out, please let us know
I agree in principle of what you say, but you have it backwards IMHO, you need to concentrate on risk management first which is your edge and it is as close to being able to limit as you can, then check out which is another part of risk management-when not to take signals, and only then signals. ************** 98% won't ever get it, and if you say you can, 98% want proof, but here is the thing, the 98% won't ever put in the hundreds of thousands of hours it takes to get good as you the person, fixing things you will lie to yourself till you die saying you don't have problems within, you rather live a lie, cause to say you have weaknesses says you are not strong like a buddy who you know is full of crap anyway. You don't want to learn as price, to be one with price and to learn how to program, you have to have unbelievable faith in yourself and most here can't even change a wall switch without shorting out themselves. You have to learn to have faith in the impossible to do the impossible. But once you learn, you laugh as what you learned in your first year was all you really needed to trade but then needed years of how to fix yourself. There are $300 margin brokerage I think in USA for Indexes, so you can start with 3 lot, so 2% a day will do it? So that means you net at least 2 ticks in ES as a minimum per contract per day. And you better be doing much more than $20 for days you have losses. But given most lose money almost every single day, twenty bucks is like impossible. You have better chance at waiting for the take a number than putting in all that time. Now back to early ET where less whining and more gems.
In all seriousness though....wait for the next alt-coin to go parabolic. Almost seems like a good strategy to spread 10k on the next promising penny coins just for that.
If you start with 1000 and net 30% per trading month after losses and comm. in 18 months you will have close to $90,000.00 and in 19 months you will have about $116,000.00. That is, at the end of each month whatever your account balance is you need to make 30% on that new balance the succeeding month...etc First month you gotta net $300.00 ($15.00 day net for 20.00 days) Second month net $390.00 (roughly 19.50 per day) Third month net $507.00 (25.35 day) Fourth month net $659.9 (32.96 day) Fifth month net $856.80 (42.84 day) .......and so on each month. Making 30% in you account each month. If you start with $1000.00 and net 20% per month on your account balance on the 25 month you would have 95,396.01. Now if you start with an account bal of 2000 and make net after losses and commissions 10% per month on the account balance at the end of three years you will have 56,206. At the end of 3 years and six months $99,572. At the end of 4 years $176,398.00