Very true. I remember my dad telling me about the depression and how there just wasn't any opportunity. He graduated from university in 1927 and ended up selling magazine subscriptions door to door. The depression definitely colored his perspective on investing, which he didn't get into until the late 1960's. There were thousands like him. For a generation or more the stock market was just too "risky" for most.
algo thats just plain stupid what you're saying. the market is very expensive because p/e's are at there lowest at peak earnings and we're near peak earnings and we still have a 17 p/e. just as housing stocks had 4 p/e's and all screamed they were cheap and now after 1 year and earnings cut in 1/2 they're back to 10 p/e's even thought stocks down huge. we're already in 2nd longest bull ever and thats on top of a huge 18 year bubble.and too say this little board is bearish who cares. traders in general are bearish as they never hold long and miss most of the big moves and are pissed. go look at every single tv show and all you here is dow 13k and hardly if any bears. sentiment indicators are wildly bullish at 55-70%. get your facts straight.
If the nasdaq ever performed that way in such a short period of time then yes, there would be a bubble. The nasdaq will not hit 5000 for quite some time, and most likely, not even within my lifetime.(I'm 56)
All praise you chanster....... mind me asking how old you are? The only thing ET has proven to me is that there is plenty of money to still be had in the markets. Sir I hope you become very rich (seriously doubt it though) and one day we link on opposite sides of the electronic trade. Good luck to you my trading brother!
i'm 59 and have been in the market 35 years. i can make a valid argument there was no washout of the mania in 2000-2003 as we hardly had any redemptions from funds. till we have a total bloody capitulation this is far from over to the downside. it might be next year of it could be 2008 but its coming
I doubt it. Another bubble larger than the one in 2000 will probably form within the next 10 years. Human emotion & the heard mentality hasn't changed despite what the pundits will tell you.
You just proved my point. You're worse off than I thought originally as well.... 59 and 35 years of experience and still looks like you've got much to learn. Go ahead and make your hyper analytical case for no washout, I'd love to hear you explain the sell off from 9-11 as no blood in the streets.
algo go look at the redemption figures case closed. in the high years 250-300 billion dollars rolled into stock funds and in 2002 the biggest redemption year was like 35 billion. FEW GAVE UP
Think about what you are saying. The VALUE of those funds took a tremendous hit so the redemptions would have to be smaller than the original money rolled in.