how do i know if trend reversed in a bear market vs bull market?

There may be more information to unlock from your charts than is obvious at the resolution displayed on the chart you posted. Does this version of the NILE chart offer any clues for your NILE analysis?

 

A good example of a trade that didn't work. You take a stop loss. You don't become a hodler!!
Nothing works all the time. Be happy with 50%

 

There was a good Pullback to support entry long with a Bigalow Best Friend Trade anytime on March 25 between 4:00 AM and 4:00 PM, no rush.
Tuck your stop around 6367, or even 6817 if you want your stop tight enough to squeak a little.
Maybe set a target on one of those pivots up there at 9814 or if you wanna go for the bigg'n, 1.1385.
No muss no fuss.
It took off like a rocketship on Monday March 28's 4:00 AM candle and dropped like a rock during the 8:00 AM candle.
A profit could have been made all day for the 24 hours following entry with minimal heat.

If this is the kind of trading you want to prepare for mute you might want to get more resolution on those charts.
If you want to trade rumors and search for manipulation, then carry on....plenty of both to be found, lol.

Doji Best Friend
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-21#post-5368378

 

Why do all of your posts start with '%%'?

 

%%
I like %% better than %.Good reminder.
Not a prediction.

 

It's a good thing your not greedy and are willing to settle for %%

 

%%
Good points\
+ its easier to settle for % aiming @ %%.That way\ some weeks may get %%. Back to 200 day moving average.

 

I don't understand that but knowing that it's intentional is good enough.

 

%%
ITs a goal+ this timing example is not near as good as it was.
SPXS made a loss of [-0.8%] last week. Good single digit % loss.
SPXS made a a gain his week of +14%.Good double digit %% gain[Thru Thur close, sorry such a weak close]

 

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Hi mute9003,

Looks like you got some nice replies. Like others have mentioned, have had best success by avoiding going against the trend.

I focus on the medium-term trend by looking at the slope of an EMA with period somewhere in the 40 - 80 range (depending on time frame and security). In the Nile chart you posted, which is also shown in the attached pic, the red EMA line shows a strong downtrend. I would rather be selling the upward retracements at momentum extreme highs than buying the candle bottoms.

My motto: don't fight the EMA.