how do i know if trend reversed in a bear market vs bull market?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by mute9003, May 9, 2022.

  1. SunTrader


    Almost 2 years here and OP still doesn't get trading is not about certainty. LOL life friggen isn't so why should anything else be.
    #21     May 10, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  2. tomorton


    Trend reversal "signals" for trade entries surely have to be one of the major causes of account wipe-out in trading.

    This whole idea will cause you to be repeatedly short in a bull market and long in a bear market. Yet its a popular approach - sentiment indicators consistently show most traders hold positions against established trends. Which also suggests most traders cannot tell what is a reversal signal.
    #22     May 10, 2022
  3. smallfil


    Example. So, XYZ stock, keeps falling and falling and falling, trending downwards. It reaches a point where it stops falling and goes sideways. I look to buy in that area if XYZ starts going up. Chances are, the downtrend is over and now, it is in an uptrend. I put in my GTC stop loss just in case, I am wrong. I like to put the odds in my favor when I am trading. I want to give my trades, all the opportunities to work out.
    #23     May 10, 2022
  4. Trader Curt

    Trader Curt

    It's called being firm.

    You can't always be patting someone on the back saying "Oh you're such a good boy Jonnie, such a good boy"

    No sometimes they need to be kicked in the right direction. Something that people like you find offensive...
    #24     May 10, 2022
    wrbtrader likes this.
  5. LOL! How many do you think will get that reference?
    #25     May 10, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  6. speedo


    Most "reversals" fail and most breakouts fail. An edge can be developed at picking turns but what it entails is well beyond the scope of a simple discussion thread and requires considerable observation, study and testing.

    Trend pullbacks can often appear to the noob and journeyman as a "Bottom" or Top" but are usually simply the beginning of a correction and are very effective at blowing up the accounts of the unprepared. And yes, they can give some earmarks of a true reversal, volume, large bull/bear bars etc. Trend pullbacks can be traded but not recommended for most and highly discouraged for the developing trader. Non-trending markets can also be traded but strategies are different and should also be avoided by the novice.

    The great majority of aspiring traders begin to trade before they are ready to do so. That you asked the question identifies you as someone who is not ready to trade. If you insist on participating anyway, it would be advised to learn to recognize the end of a correction and (re)enter the prominent direction of your timeframe of reference. If you can't identify a trend then you are certainly not ready to risk money in any environment.
    Last edited: May 10, 2022
    #26     May 10, 2022
    sridhga, mute9003 and smallfil like this.
  7. easymon1


    What timeframe charts do you like to trade?
    How bout posting a typical chart with a couple hundred bars showing what you are looking at?
    #27     May 10, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  8. %%
    Good points\ NO one really know until several days of months close prices.
    and it depends on if someone wants a professional measure like a 200 day moving average . my comments do not apply to any thing but stocks\ ETFs based on stocks.
    Best way to lose money is buy\ average down cr@p, like bitcon, but don't try that @ home, unless the goal is to lose maximum money ...............................................................................................:caution::caution:
    #28     May 10, 2022
  9. tomorton


    This is an orthodox strategy and there's nothing wrong with it. I can say I almost always use the sensible tactic of entry by way of an order on my side of price.

    But you're now describing not a reversal but a break-out from a sideways range. And even most break-outs don't become trends. And with none of them is it possible to predict it will eventually become a trend.

    What most new traders are looking for is a dramatic V-shaped reversal from a downtrend into an equally steep uptrend. They've seen it on a hundred websites. It looks great. Its so rare they can achieve profit this way that such illustrations could almost be said to be a scam.
    #29     May 10, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  10. %%
    ''Grasshopper'' is a nickname Kung Fu king called his mentor:caution::caution:
    Its also a nickname from old testament, the Hebrews named themselves\ when they saw the giants + giant grapes in the land of Canaan[ land of capital + rich farmland]
    #30     May 10, 2022