NQ 1,000 points away from the 200 weekly moving average. When everyone's bearish.....you know the thing.
Trend Reversals? Harmonic Patterns.com can give you an Idea. Just be aware that reversals are minor... to major in that range. Someone looking at a 1 min chart gets trend reversal a lot more vs someone looking at the hr chart. Confidence is finding the easiest strategy while following your moneymanagement rules. The easiest strategy should/could be your baseline to build your confidence. From there you can work on ratios like 1:1, 1:2... or fib levels, moving stops after certain levels etc. Good Luck.
One may look and try to see the general characteristics of the market as a whole. Bull: upward grinding market with sharp/violent corrections to the down side Bear: downward grinding market with sharp/violent corrections to the up side
Above one is the best answer for the OP's question. On the other hand, if one managed to figure out if an on-going move is a pullback or a reversal, then one had hit the trading nirvana.