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How Do Forcasters Never Get It Wrong? Call a 40% Chance

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by Tom B, Mar 10, 2018.

henry76
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Tom B said:
Citigroup’s Mr. Suva forgot to hedge. He put a 40% chance on Apple buying Netflix, but also a 25% chance Apple buys Walt Disney Co. , a 10% chance each it buys one of three videogame makers, and a 5% chance it buys Tesla Inc. That sums to 100%, implying it is mathematically certain Apple buys one of them.
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No it doesn't.

#11 Mar 12, 2018

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