How difficult to trade are ES and NQ?

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Lobster, Nov 7, 2003.

  1. After years of devoting most of my time to trading, I still don't see how one can trade ES and/or NQ profitably. Obviously, it can be done, but short of forex these contracts are probably the most difficult instrument to trade. Or is it just me?
  2. It can be traded profitably, but yes I think it is the most difficult to trade...

    PEACE and good-specul8tion...
  3. ...IMO NQ is easier to trade than anything else out there. It is just like a woman. Get to know when she's gonna be sweet and when she's gonna be a bitch and you have it made. NQ, like a fine woman, definitely has an attitude.
  4. No, It is just you.

    but seriously, how long have you been trading them? what have you successfully traded?
  5. If you can't make profit trading NQ and ES, then Trading
    QQQ and SPY will be much more difficult.

    I am trading QQQ with commision of 1 penny per share,
    which is equal to paying 8$ commision perside/percontract,
    as future scalp traders are paying 2$ per side/per contract

    I am paying 4 times more commision than average future
    traders. (i am trading in sub-LLC account)

    I tried to position trade, but with todays market to tough
    to even anticipate.
    Scalp trading is the only way to go but not possible, since
    high commision even kills my profitable days, even more.

    But hopefully i will have more success when i move to future
    trading, as still i have not been able to open account with
    futures firms due to some regulation with Patriotic act regard
    to some foreign account.
  6. after trading the NQ e-mini futures contracts daily for over a year now, I can tell you IMHO, that this market is a dying market and has become on a week-to-week, month-to-month and year to date- basis, a significantly ever increasingly difficult market to extract consistent intraday profits from..

    From Oct. 2002 until around Feb. '03 the system I was trading was realizing daily gains on avg. of 17-39 pts. /day, per contract.
    on a 5-lot that was $1700-$3900/day before comms. and taxes.

    Into the summer of this year, the results declined rapidly to the tune of 7-11pts. avg./daily.

    Currently, that same system is producing -5 to +5-7 on avg. daily.
    Crippled by these stats I've currently taken it to a 2-lot trading scenario with staggered exits, which when trading the NQ nowadays makes a world of difference.

    The NQs cyclical movement for the most part nowadays involves consistent "Crazy Ivans", whereby the innocent bystanding trader will put on a trade which he might find yields him 3.5-5.5 pts. in his direction taking the culmination of perhaps 6-7 bars, on a 100TB chart before these gains are realized, bar #8 and/or #9 can take the trader back to an open P&L of +1.5-2.0pts. in an instant!

    This particular market each day seems to more and more make its moves in pts. of 4-4.5 with retracements of 3pt, in overall moves in corrective waves of 3's, therefore hardley ever allowing for consistent contigious moves of any appreciable breadth to form in a manner that allows holding the trade for a significant portion of any given large move.

    In a nutshell, as a result of decreased spreads, lack of consistent overall US market velocity, the NQ e-mini market has ironically become most efficient, a.k.a.- this bitch is hard to trade in a way that will make you some serious Bank!

    Now, the Euro Fx is a completely different story and one that should be being looked at by traders that love trends. 100pt. ranges, its hard to find anything out there that has a better back-side to stare at...

  7. With SPY you might be paying less in commision money
    because of high price (106.35$) where you buy less #
    of shares, but again SPY doen't have trading range %
    wise (follow trough) compare to ES, NQ and QQQ.

    With more traders moving to Futures, there is less
    liquidity to be found in ETFs when momentum and
    break O/D happens.
  8. Did you meant you are profitable trading forex market?
    If yes, which pairs are easier to read on TA analysis and
    less daily news effected
  9. That was an excellent post. The "Crazy Ivans", never heard that term before, but that is a very accurate description. I have been contemplating for awhile how one could objectively evaluate the number of overlapping bars on, say a 5 minute basis. Where the entire range of the previous bar is covered or exceeded, before the intermediate term swing, trend, etc resumes. To me the micro trend on the indicies is so mean reverting due to all the arbitrage, program trading, maturing market, etc. Most of the range comes after a mid morning economic report, which is virtually untradeable unless you are positioned ahead of it, which is akin to betting red or black.

    Anyway, those were some interesting and useful stats.
  10. jem


    It think it is a submarine term I first read about in Tom Clancy novels. ==Crazy Ivan that is.
    #10     Nov 8, 2003