There are survivors and others are thrivers. Someday you might understand that ET is very much like a crab mentality. The thrivers will eventually figure this out. Good Luck. The reality is that you have a 5% chance of making it. Crab mentality Crab mentality is a phrase popular among Filipinos, and was first coined by writer Ninotchka Rosca, in reference to the phrase crabs in a bucket. It describes a way of thinking best described by the phrase "if I can't have it, neither can you." The metaphor refers to a pot of crabs. Individually, the crabs could easily escape from the pot, but instead, they grab at each other in a useless "king of the hill" competition which prevents any from escaping and ensures their collective demise. The analogy in human behavior is that members of a group will attempt to "pull down" any member who achieves success beyond the others, out of envy, conspiracy or competitive feelings. The concept figures prominently in Terry Pratchett's novel "Unseen Academicals." A fishmonger does not bother to keep a lid on the crab bucket because "any that tries to get out gets pulled back." The protagonist comes to realize that her social status results not from external repression, but from her own low expectations of herself: "The worst of it is, the crab that mostly keeps you down is you." This term is broadly associated with short-sighted, non-constructive thinking rather than a unified, long-term, constructive mentality. It is also often used colloquially in reference to individuals or communities attempting to improve their socio-economic situations, but kept from doing so by others attempting to ride upon their coat-tails or those who simply resent their success. Edit: But to be fair. Before one can be thrivers they are usually survivors...
What I wrote is about the MEDIAN small trader, which is a statistic and not a physical person. The median does not do compounding, because stats tell us it is what it is. 256 days is meant to compute upper bounds on earnings. The reality is that people take time off, holidays, get ill, lose touch of market pulse, etc. Small traders then trade probably much less than 240 days per year. 300k is then the other "top of class" figure. Any small trader who could consistently make 300k per year with a volume of 20 contracts day trading emini (and flat at end of day) would in my view be a great trader.
If I understand the main point of your post correctly, the "analysis" is pointing to the same point as yours. You may want to reread. Congrats to you if you are top of class. In trading being top of class is not enough. There are many other necessary conditions. Their list may not even be of finite size.
An interesting aspect about the above is something I would describe as ‘trader apnea.’ During these moments of ‘fight or flight’, the nervous system trends into a state of incoherence by apnea caused by the observation of price action relevant to one’s position. There’s a comfort zone that trader’s setttle into by virtue of their methodology that have a lower and upper bound. Whenever we approach either limit of loss or profits about-to-be realized, breathing becomes irregular. There are different domains of comfort all based upon one’s accumulation of ‘stable data.’ For me, progress is made in execution performance when I become aware of the apnea and follow through deep breathing. With breathing back on track, whatever momentary confusion I perceived in PA resolves into clarity and my suspended animated state returns to agility in the present moment. Whether the paradigm is OODA or MADA, breathing through problems is universally applicable. It marshalls the coherence of our spirit/mind/body to utilize all our available resources. Edit: However, if one hasn’t built a spectrum of differentiation within their mind, they still would not know what they were observing in PA, thus re-stimulating the conditions for trader apnea.
cole_ : the first matters you need to recognize and understand are, The First Law of Analysis is that the Price, Time, Waves Movement, is, Irregular. The First Law of Trading is that the Price, Time, Waves Movement, is, Irregular. Because of the above Laws, the vast majority of people get hopelessly lost trying to understand and learn trading, try to trade without losing any money, and 'develop' a profitable trading system or method. The idea of 'taking it apart' to learn and understand how it works doesn't work when it comes to trading, so don't waste your time trying to go the 'learn route'. What I'll recommend is that you test trading systems, manual and automated execution systems. Do not waste your money purchasing a system. The First Law of Trading states that the Price, Time, Waves Movement, is Irregular, which in part means Every system and/or trader will have losing trades. So, both the First Law of Analysis and First Law of Trading infer that because the Price, Time, Waves Movements are Irregular, there Will Be trading Losses. "Losses are Good" Every business calculates losses into their profitability. The problem for the indivdual is that while a business doesn't give 'losses' a second thought beyond controlling them as well as possible, most individuals blame themselves for the loss, and this generates huge amounts of guilt that does all sorts of nasty psychological things to them including the inability to trade, etc, etc, etc. So, coming to terms with Loss, psychologically, spiritually, emotionally and of course financially, gives one a stress-free composure, and clear headed trading ability. In examining trading systems, one wants to Know the Profit & Loss of the system. I believe the best thing for you to do is persue the 'Systems Testing' method. The less you have to think about when executing - trading the system the better, just as long as you understand How the system gives or makes the BuySell trades and/or signals. If you have computer science, programming degrees you can attempt to code a winning system - eg: https://championship.mql5.com/ and it's possible to become expert in learning and applying the charting/order entry program's language to create manual and/or automatic execution trading systems. Personally, I'm Expert at Price, Time, Waves Movement Analysis having over the decades developed Analysis methods that work, but, couldn't code to save my life. Having spent far too much of my time with Analysis, I realized Finally that what I needed was a RedGreen signalling system, and have worked to produce a non code method that generates Red - Sell signals and, Green - Buy signals. My system is entirely manual execution, and while occasionally there's room for an interpretation of what the Price is doing or going to do — can't stop analyzing — by and large it's just a matter of me mouse clicking on the appropriate NinjaTrader Order Entry button, Red Sell, Green Buy when the signals appear on the charts in order for me to trade the ES contract. My system's based on Moving Average Crosses and the Guppy Macd — as simple as it gets. ET doesn't have a 'Trading Systems' forum per se, so here you'll have to read thru several forums to pick-up ideas and check out other forums that have dedicated 'Trading Systems' forums, but eg: Forex Factory, 'Trading Systems forum', 2,831 Threads - systems - spread over 71 pages, but only the first couple of pages have active threads - systems ! ! ! Happy hunting.
I clicked on your "here" button and that is very good stuff. Despite what some say here, I really like your emphasis on "demo trading". If you can consistently make demo money in all types of markets then you know you have only one obstacle left --- adjusting to real money in a live market. That is HUGE of course but at least you know you have developed your edge.
8 years, 20 hours per week. (needed to work my regular job too, or it would probably have taken me 4 years to learn) You can't be average or competent. You need to be come gifted in your strategy. Your either a master at analyzing data or A master at pattern recognition Average or above average lose often.
Thanks for the reply and the novel ideas: that "trader apnea" and stress-induced breathing interruption could lead to poor mental performance. (Side note: Sleep apnea is a common medical condition, where a person does not get enough oxygen while sleeping because the trachea collapses or is obstructed. Symptoms: snoring or snorting; restless sleep; waking frequently (often without knowing). It stresses the heart and can have other health consequences. The solution is a small CPAP or variable-speed BPAP machine, that pumps air into the lungs via a nose-mouth mask. It's also helpful when lungs are congested, or one has bronchitis or asthma. Look into it if you snore.) Anyway, the variable-motor speed BPAP gives aural feedback about breathing interruptions, speed and depth. Disadvantages related to trading are: it takes some space, one needs to connect and disconnect a mask; it interferes with phone use and conversations. Advantages are it may prevent you from nodding off -- dangerous if holding a mouse. Thanks again.
Impressive - id·i·ot sa·vant noun noun: idiot savant; plural noun: idiot savants; plural noun: idiots savants a person who is considered to be mentally handicapped but displays brilliance in a specific area, especially one involving memory.