How Deep Would This Retreat Be?

If there is a retreat, how deep would it be? Also what are the best vehicles to play the short side?

My current assumption is that the upside would be limited to 1% or less from current prices (QQQQ around 55, and spy around 126).

What do you think?

 

Upside could be a bit more, depending on your definition of "retreat" (i.e. when do you consider it a finished retreat which bottomed and leaves room for fresh highs).

Depending on your ideas you can go after root causes (I think it won't take long before munis become an issue, for example, so you can trade that). You can also trade housing indices or a bunch of other derivatives, for example.

Otherwise the "best" strategy really just depends on how much leverage and risk you want to take on.

I consider the downside risk to be bigger than 20%.

 

SPY target 106. Mark my post! with VIX so low, load up on Feb 2011 puts and don't touch them until SPY 110

Feb SPY 110 puts 0.42 right now

 

How much? Thanks

 

Thanks for sharing. If you also have an opinion on Baidu it would be helpful. Best wishes!

 

the charts look very bullish.

as long FED is doing quantitative easing and firms like goldman sachs and the major banks have easy access to fed rates at 0% there is lots of liquidity for market indexes to buy up any supply.

this market won't return to normal until fed rates return to normal rates.

even shorting intraday is risky in the market..it's too illiquid and dull to short in this market. and volume is very light..big players are gone from this market in the open market.

trading regular hours is like afterhours most bots trading...in the indexes

risky going long and short for short term. the short bots keep covering and now the resistance of november is now SUPPORT can you believe it.

 

don't follow BIDU

 

Dont even THINK about the short side of the ES.
It is a buyers market with a strong upside bias.
Look to other instruments of you want to short something.

 

it is somewhat of a long shot but it is not impossible.

<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/dWfLThXoC8Y?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/dWfLThXoC8Y?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>

 

when this scam finally hits the toilet, the effect will be catastrophic. but the fed has a bunch of games to play until then, and getting in front of them is asinine.