How could pattern be proved, formalised and predicted

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by harrytrader, Feb 27, 2003.

  1. First I remind you the single rule of my chart ...
  2. <IMG SRC=>

    The huge advantage of a model is that it doesn't need any fuzzy neuronal expertise because it just use the very basic logical predicats language for example for the picture above:

    Head = the first dual of MaxTP2 encountered = Min Dual MaxTP2

    MaxTP2_SPOT = 7960.7 -> Dual 7925.94
    MaxTP2_FUT = 7966.75 -> Dual 7929.72

    => Head = Min Dual MaxTP2 = 7925.94

    In real
    Head = 7925.74 (error = 7925.74-7925.94 = -0.20)

    Shoulder = the previous point below the dual = (Min Dual MaxTP2) [-1]

    Index (Min Dual MaxTP2) = 5 (5th point)
    Index (Min Dual MaxTP2 [-1]) = 5 - 1 (4th point)
    => Shoulder = TB2OnFUT[4] = 7911.92

    In real
    Left shoulder = 7913.35 (error = 7913.35-7911.92 = 1.43)
    Right shoulder = 7912.91 (erro = 7912.91-7911.92 = 0.99)
  3. r u making any money offa this maximinima stuff? Or is it just paper? And r u gonna join the Forign Legion, go whup Saddam's ass???
  4. I have to admit that I do not understand any of it but I am always interested in " predictive analysis " . Can you make predictions couple of days ahead or use it intraday ?
  5. I don't understand anything myself. Et pourtant je suis francophone. Harry, maybe you should hold a class in the chat room one of these days.
  6. Do you reflect your fear to rejoin the foreign Legion Perharps if I spread my methods to the mass of other traders sure you will have to worry with your future because they will get some advantages over you :D. Happily I don't intend to do so, I only want the best traders and since there aren't many bests there will be only a few that will be proposed to direct our hedge funds.

    I created this because I had lost my advantage as scalper on closed opencried french future market when it became electronic : now I can compete with market makers again some are even too slow to react :D. So don't worry for me my little boy, I am a veteran for seven years now and have only traded futures whereas I have traded stocks for less than 1 month in my whole life :)

  7. There are predictions on several scales but the higher the scale the higher the imprecision. That's why some traders get crazy on upper scale :D.

    For intraday it is excellent whereas method suffer from period of inconsistency because market conditions have changed relative to their framework, this one never change: it has no parameters it extract the hidden structure of the market, it is the same algorithm for any indice of the world or even stocks. It seems to be more precise on high level indices like Dow Jones or cac40 than for SP500 or Nasdaq. But I didn't really follow SP500 or Nasdaq at the moment.

    Nevertheless what I present here is a physical model, several trading systems can be built upon it depending on the style, the risk profile etc. wanted. That is to say the model is independant from the trading system it describes the market as it behaves: it has no bias. As an image it is like the genotype of market whereas trading system are the phenotype. You can't find the genotype from the phenotype without a theory it is obvious in genetics this doesn't seem obvious in finance that's funny for me.

    As for pattern, it's just the beginning of a possible application of the model. I didn't build this model for that at the origin. In fact I dind't build this model at the origin for any special purpose than trying to resolve my problem with competing with markets makers at scalp level :) . Now The model is foremost suitable for swing. I won't tell people to scalp with it, scalp is too dangerous for novices.

  8. I will do it when the site and the education materials will be finished (at the moment we haven't even finished graphics automation ). 4 years ago I have launched a chat with 200 persons (it was a chat for novice traders it was not for presenting this model, in fact this model was just born I couldn't talk about it at that time) really it's a mess with so much people especially when one of them continiousally sent pornographic messages to disturb the discussion :D. Perhaps a jealous competitor I don't know but after this bad experience I don't like conducting chat anymore except if I can find something really practical to do so.