"Market goes down in a deflationary environment and up in an inflationary one." is a vast oversimplification to the point of being misleading. You need only look at the 2008 to 2020 timeframe, as I earlier indicated, to see a time where the exact opposite was true. I get the underlying idea you've got, I just don't think it's accurate. For example, the current draws on credit we're seeing by companies like Boeing are purely defensive. They're basically drawing on credit while they still can in anticipation of it getting tighter, at least for them. That's the opposite of an inflationary signal. There's literally nothing in the underlying economy at the moment that argues for inflation and lots of things that argue against it. Bottom line question, were you around in 2008 for the first QE and were you claiming we'd see rampant inflation then as well?
LOL, yeah I was thinking we'd see rampant inflation in 2008. Even bought 1,000 physical silver coins "just in case" Even though I was wrong, it was still the smarter move and I did profit off that play, just not nearly as much as I thought I would(but still over 100% gains, but held for a few years)
I'll be honest, I also put my money where my mouth was in 2008 and went short treasuries. Moderately expensive lesson for me I always try to remember!
So, with that lessons learned, are you buying equities today? Don't know what the future will be like, but since in the long term we are all death, I went all in this morning.
Not quite yet. I plan to average in when people start going back to work/school/restaurants.... I bought a house in late 2008 at 25% below the peaks because I thought the housing crash was over (and I had just moved and needed a place to live, to be fair to myself). Sold it 5 years later still at a loss. On the flip side I started putting money back into equities at the same time 10% of my portfolio a month and did pretty well off the whole deal. So there's a lesson in there somewhere, for me personally at least.
Geez. Do it like the big boyz: Sam Zell and Warren Buffett are happy. They get the stuff for relatively cheap money. All your theories here are obsolete and irrelevant. Do we see balance sheet destructions of corporations? Yes. Is this long-term? No. Did the FED do the right thing. Yes. Will we see V shaped or U shaped recovery? Most probably U shaped. We are not seeing only stimulus by the FED, but ECB, BOJ, BOC, BOE, PBOC, RBA, SNB and RBNZ but also massive credit lines by government. STOP THE WHINING AND MAKE SOME MONEY!