how come u guys pretend to know it all?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by tshin01, May 14, 2003.

  1. Sorry you thought the advice was terrible. Maybe I did not make myself clear, and that was more the problem.

    Yeah, I agree that if there was some strategy that assured you of netting you 10k this month, you would jump on it. As would most of us. But the thing I was trying to express is that it doesn't work that way. It is my belief that adapting new strategies, or techniques, or methods, or whatever word works for each of us takes some time. There is some trial and error involved. So it is unlikely that I (or anyone) could stumble on something immediately, have it work for a month, and then abandon it and get something new that will work as well the next month..

    First off, assume I come up with something that DOES work beautifully for a month. Then 30 days later it stops working. I am not going to just give up on it the first day or even the first week it doesn't work. So adapting is a process. It takes a while to develop a "new method", and it also takes a while to let it go.

    Hope this makes my point more clear. Nothing happens overnight. Nothing gets developed all at once. Though I will admit sometimes an idea does come on like a "revelation". So implementing a new idea can happen fast. Giving up on it generally takes a bit longer. Hard to stop doing something that was successful when it stops working at first. It is natural to think, "well it's worked for a long time, so I am going to stick with it a little longer" even after it stops being a good thing. I think this is MUCH harder to do (drop a winning method) than it is to start a new one.

    As for the "very valuable secrets"....what can I say? Here we just disagree. Maybe it's because I just don't believe that "secrets" can stay "secrets" for long. Anything that is truly unique quickly gets around one way or another. Remember, anything anyone does gets seen by someone else. If you have a "super secret" proprietary method, and you are making a lot of money implementing it, SOMEONE will see it. It may be your broker, your clearing firm, a compliance person, someone on an exchange...virtually anyone. No trades are kept secret. Start making a lot of money with consistency, and you get noticed. If you are grinding out an insignificant amount of money doing it, then yes, you may go unnoticed. But if you can't really capitalize on something in a big way, then how can you say that the "secrets" are "very valuable"??

    Start making serious money, and whatever you do gets scrutinized somewhere up the line. And if what you are doing isn't obvious, that doesn't matter. People can and will "decode" your secret to success. Believe me. Any significant sampling of trades can be assessed and "reverse engineered".

    Peace,
    :)RS
     
    #51     May 15, 2003
  2. Bung, my brother. I have been using "Error 404" for just a short time. I am on vacation. So I figured I would use a different nom de plume until I start trading again. Which was supposed to not be until early July. But I am getting bored, so I may start to dabble again next week.

    At that time I will go back to using RS8.5 (the updated version of RS7, but with no noticeable differences). I made my changes openly.....

    http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=240795&highlight=rs7#post240795

    http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=251560&highlight=rs7#post251560

    Peace Bungster,
    :)RSx.x
     
    #52     May 15, 2003
  3. Dustin

    Dustin

    OK I can agree with most of that. By "very valuable" I don't mean there are million dollar secret strategies out there. If I find something that can support me ($50-100k/yr) than that to me is valuable, but at the same time probably not large enough for people to dig into my trade history.

    Thanks for the reply.
     
    #53     May 15, 2003
  4. I am with you on that. I too value my strategies in that they supports me nicely. I just don't think I do anything unique enough to separate me from the pack.

    I just sometimes get a little wound up when I read posts here by guys that claim they can and do make 5% a day. This is just so preposterous as to defy even a response. But people do say that kind of stuff. They usually soon disappear.

    I know in my own case, if I can average just one tenth of one percent per trading day over the course of a year, I will have exceeded 20%. Which is good in any realistic sense.

    Make 20% a year, and you are set.

    I also read (someone just posted the other day about this) that any "professional trader" should never have a losing month. Again, I find this to be a joke. I have never heard of any trader not EVER having had a losing month. Or even consecutive losing months.

    If someone tells me that they have never had a losing month, then I know that either they have just started trading, and have been lucky (and not yet learned the lessons a trader needs to learn that are only gotten from losing experiences), or they are trading so close to the vest that they have no risk tolerance, so their gains are insignificant. Or they are not taking commissions into consideration, and are taking penny winners. Or they are in fixed income. Or they are just lying.

    Everyone loses sometimes.

    Anyway, I am envious of you if you really have something unique and can keep it "under the radar". But I know some guys really do have their methods, and that they work very well. I even know one particular guy that has made the very same identical trades virtually every single day at the open for at least the past 10 years. He has made money on an amazingly consistent basis. But what he does is no secret. I have actually explained in detail exactly what he does here on another thread. I don't do it, and most people would be reluctant to use his strategy. Because it seems too mechanical, and also requires the patience and mentality to make up for large loses very slowly.

    Most people do NOT want to have their losing days bigger than their winning days. Making it up slowly takes a certain kind of discipline very few of us have.

    Peace, and good luck,
    :)RS
     
    #54     May 15, 2003
  5. A 25 point move in the NQ can give you 20% profit. And you work day after day trading this and trading that with the target of making 20% a year? :confused:
     
    #55     May 15, 2003
  6. Yes.

    Of course if I did not have the kind of buying power that would feed me well with a 20% return, then I might be tempted to swing for the fences. However, this is a factor that often gets overlooked by new traders.

    If I could make 20% in one day, I certainly would be happy. But if I lost 20% in one day, I would lose my job. Things are much different when you trade other people's money. (I don't even get the 20%....just a PERCENTAGE of THAT).

    Peace,
    :)RS
     
    #56     May 15, 2003