Everyday, the DOW is down 50 or so pts with controlled selling. Basically ho hum action. What we need for a good bottom is several -150+ down days on the DOW. As I type, DELL, BRCM, KLAC is all up again. What gives? Too many bottom fishers?
Energy stocks are a shining star. Somebody convince our "conservative" government to roll out price controls and anti-gouging laws, and we'll have the long awaited 2% down day. That'll make for a cold winter with scarce energy supplies, but I can always burn stacks of $100 bills that I make from a massive short.
drip.. Guess everyone just waiting for a bounce while they slowly dumping stocks. Bulls want a bounce to get out of longs under water... Bears waiting for a bounce to add more.. seems.. nobody gets what they want
Another reason why the old style capitulation is not as common nowadays (unless there is a really huge event ) is that the structure of mkt execution might have changed from huge volumes of stock bought and sold by $2 brokers on the floor or MM at NAz where now they are "disseminated" more smartly thru vwap/twap algorithms throughout a time frame?
I disagree. Today's 1 point premium on the S&P Futures close is a great example of people starting to give up.
Many traders are so used to the Internet days. Seems they can't get that volatility out of their system. Its a sign of a gambler wanting more, but getting less. Ever try trading in an 1970's environment? You scratch out whatever you can BUT must remain patient. Get used to it or go home.
Capitulation? You got to be kidding! Capitulation will come after prolonged decline to where traders feel very much pressed, then a final swoosh to make them fear that they'd "better sell before all is lost". The market is *miles* from that. We're still early in the "frog-'em" stage.
Bear mkts "ACT" different than bull mkts, makes no differrnce if you are in a Major, internediate, short term trend (time frame). In bears you want to sell the early rally. In bulls you want to buy the early selloffs... OK, where are the statistical, mathematical types to back-test that and see if it will fly...