How certain are you of the trades you place?

I commend Rin4et for asking another sincere question that brings out strong answers from knowledgeable traders.

Sometimes ideas need to be examined in different ways and threads may have overlapping ideas.

Sime of Rin4et's question threads have have introduced me to obviously savvy traders with a low post count with whom I developed private contact.

In my life, questions, disagreement, friendly discussion have been valuable.
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When two people believe opposite things, chances are (at least) one of them is wrong. It pays to find out if that someone is you.

Ray Dalio

 

Before opening one should be at least 70% sure that a deal will be successful. Otherwise, there is no sense to open.

 

I am never sure a trade will work out - in fact I assume it won't which ensures my exit will be taken. People that are sure their trade will be a winner are more likely to not use a stop, keep lowering it, or even worse keep adding on to a loser.

Obviously we all try to take the most favorable setups. If you ever see a buzz in the web world of a sure thing trade the crowd is excited about - please let me know, I will gladly take the other side of that trade.

I have 100% sure I will follow my trading plan & processes - I am never sure how the next trade will work out, and could care less.

 

I'm sooooooo grateful that nobody tried to tell me that (or anything like that), when I was learning how to trade, just in case I'd been naive enough to believe it - the damage to my prospects would have been just awful.

 

Dont be so hung up on win %.

Id take a 30% chance of 10R over a 70% at 2R anyday.

 

Good call Grampy. I have a friend who will not look twice at a market unless he has an 80% chance of winning. Some say it's an edge,...I call it crazy.

 

If I had any certainty at all, I wouldn't use stops. I deal in probabilities and have no idea what that would be on any given setup. I do know what it would be over a statistically significant number of them which is why I take 'em.

 

70-80% certain

But in trading it's all about probabilities. I may put on 5 losers in a row and then 20 winners. As long as your strategy has a long term positive expectancy you keep grinding and let the odds play out