How certain are you of the trades you place?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rin4et, Jan 23, 2018.

  1. rin4et

    rin4et

    For successful day traders, how certain are you of the trades you make on a scale of 1 to 10?
    10 - being as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow :)
    1 - getting heads on a coin flip

    Also for context please answer the following questions:
    1) How many trades do you place on average per day?
    2) On average how many of those trades do you get wrong i.e. stopped out with a loss?
    3) What is your average position size? In dollar amount.

    Please respond to this thread only if you are a successful day trader. Thanks!
     
    777 and toc like this.
  2. With proper understanding, fairly high... >60%. I'd say. If strategic plays are correct, the "reasonably expected/hoped for(?) profit objective" should be 3x-4x the amount risked. The key is understanding "why". Stops, as always.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2018
  3. As certain as my forward tests.
     
  4. How certain? That's a solid 1 minus commissions.

    If you were to ask how confident...that's slightly higher, but I view my confidence entering a position with suspicion.
     
    JamesEM likes this.
  5. "Strong opinions, weakly held."

    Strong enough to enter, weak enough to exit at the first sign of trouble.
     
  6. DaveV

    DaveV

    Your question implies that no trader would make a trade when she believes that the odds are less than 50%. Actually there are several reasons to make a trade when the odds are quite low, including hedging against another winning position, closing out a position to free up cash, to rebalance a portfolio, or where the risk/reward ratio is suitable.
     
    Xela likes this.
  7. HOGWASH! Whatever "play" a trader makes, it should be with the expectation (in his own mind, right or wrong), that it's likely the correct play.

    Who in his right mind would conclude... "This is a low "probability play, but I'm going to do it anyway"?? (You know like gambling... betting "8 the hard way"... odds 36:1 against) ... has no place in good trading.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2018
  8. Xela

    Xela


    I was also thinking that rin4et's questions are predicated on a certain belief-set about "win rates", which isn't one I subscribe to, myself (but we've covered that issue in earlier threads).

    Hardly anyone among the group of us whose answers you seek will be willing (or even able) to answer your third question anyway, rin4et, as most will be institutional traders who can't/don't comment on such matters in public.
     
    DaveV and comagnum like this.
  9. comagnum

    comagnum

    I believe every trade I put on has as just as much chance of ending up in the loser pile as any other trade. By default I assume every trade I put on will be a loser - and that is fine with me since it keep my defenses strong like they should be when putting $ into the market.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2018
  10. You should never be so exactly certain or confident as a trader. -- If someone picks 1 or 10 to describe themselves about a decision...that would make me shiver and cringe.

    Have a bubblegum rubberband mindset;
    Be a hot air balloon that calmly watches, and hovers about...don't be a Jet plane or rocket ship.

    Trading is not so much about winning prediction % abilities, but rather...a collective, dynamic entity.
    You could predict right, and still end up wrong or unprofitable. and Vice versa.

    As Morpheus, Laurence Fishburne, :cool: would say...I am trying to Free your Mind, Neo. But I can only tell you. You're the one that has to trade it,
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2018
    #10     Jan 23, 2018