How can you tell when the trend is over?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by mute9003, Jan 10, 2023.

  1. Absolutely not. I can show you dozens of examples how this is not true and could easily trap someone who believes this.
     
    #131     Jul 15, 2023
    murray t turtle likes this.
  2. Which is why you check the higher timeframe for confirmation. If the higher timeframe quickly dies out, it’s a “trap”. Whatever timeframe you trade, there will be multiple “breakout” bars in its timeframe as well as the one above it.

    what do you trade? My experience is primarily ES
     
    #132     Jul 15, 2023
  3. reversal patterns can indicate a possible change in trends. And candle sticks can provide an insight into them.
     
    #133     Jul 15, 2023
  4. %%
    Excellent point; + my points are not limited to ES, which is disclosed + designed ''as a trading vehicle''
    PLUS, a 2 day chart LOL + i look @ those also;
    frequently has a large gap up or down, so even in a uptrending bull market for only 2 days, a gap up or down could easy continue the uptrend..
    IN SEPT, sure a most any kind of gap up[steep angle or any angle] may not hold\ but that's SEPT, SPY benchmark + liquidity leader:cool::cool:
     
    #134     Jul 17, 2023
  5. Redneck

    Redneck

    Everything is always trending (unless it goes to zero)..., or nothing is ever trending- simply depends the TF you're referencing

    Why context is one very important aspect

    Once one can define it (consistently) - one can identify what its doing / or has done / or extrapolate out what it likely will do next

    I said likely - there are no guarantees what price does next

    RN
     
    #135     Aug 19, 2023
    murray t turtle likes this.
  6. speedo

    speedo

    Hey RN, how ya been
     
    #136     Aug 19, 2023
  7. Redneck

    Redneck

    Really good

    Thank you

    RN
     
    #137     Aug 19, 2023
    speedo likes this.
  8. %%
    Good points, good %.
    And a good trend , or very good slowdown plenty of times, means nothing except a pause + good trend resumes.
    [Of course on a short term trade ,may treat a pause much different so as not to lose a small short term profit].SEPT is a short + some times medium trend change or pause.[Stock Traders Almanac, by Hirsh]
    50dma can be a good reversal area\ even though not lately LOL\ but that also is a another trend clue also.
    Super trend also, can be quite different from a good trend.
     
    #138     Aug 21, 2023
    MarkBrown likes this.
  9. Very late to the party, but one way to understand the end of a trend is to look at consolidation ranges.

    https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/120414/how-do-i-identify-stock-under-consolidation.asp

    Normally before a trend starts or ends there is a calm consolidation at certain levels, when the market breaks those levels is normally when trends start. Now, I say normally, because there are exceptions, it doesn't happen every single time.

    But consolidations can be a good way to look at it.
     
    #139     Aug 21, 2023
    murray t turtle likes this.
  10. %%
    THAT's also a difference in log+ linear charts+ that angle can be deceptive in several ways.
    Easy ways to disprove that angle trap.. ....A bull market is full of gap ups+ average bull uptrend lasts 3-4 years . Cant get any steeper than 4 years gap ups. Unless its 9 years of gap ups.LOL
    Another deceptive way on the angle trap .
    1973-74 bear on a long line chart looked like nothing much\ angle \compared to bear of 2000-2001-2002, which looked like huge killer downtrend+ steep angle in SPY[S&p500]
    But due to compounding price + linear chart, same move in %, within 1%.
    A 3 rd way to be trapped, on angle , is a very good trend, is much different from average trends.[Think of the occasional trend days with shallow or seldom pullbacks]:caution:
     
    #140     Aug 21, 2023