Are you trying to base your decision on Wall Street analysts and research reports? Don't make me laugh. Now you are really showing that you are completely new to this. I was talking about the consumer, not Apple. It's not hard to understand. The people that buy I-crap don't even have cash. It was mostly on credit cards or home equity loans. Now that's gone, so who is Apple going to peddle their overpriced crap to? And if you really want to start understanding balance sheets & income statements, then look at the fact that Apple has $20 cash a share. Which is great and provides a great floor if you ever see Apple breaking $50. At the same time, their revenues have stopped growing, which means high P/E no longer sustainable.
Are you trying to base your decision on Wall Street analysts and research reports? Don't make me laugh. Well considering the fact that most people who have posted on this thread recently have done so only because of Apple's large drop today which was caused by...you guessed it..analyst downgrades.So who is basing their conclusions on analysts again? Everyone that took today's drop seriously. I posted that finding only to illustrate that the analysts themselves admitted they still expected earnings growth, even though they downgraded it. Now you are really showing that you are completely new to this. I was talking about the consumer, not Apple. It's not hard to understand. The people that buy I-crap don't even have cash. It was mostly on credit cards or home equity loans. Now that's gone, so who is Apple going to peddle their overpriced crap to? It was either or, apparently you are new at sentence structure since it was impossible to tell whether you were referring to Apple or its customers just by reading your statement. I chose to tentatively assume (note me saying "I hope you weren't talking about Apple") you were talking about Apple itself because surely you read my OP which stated that this would be a long term hold, and surely you would know that the financial situation of today's consumers is likely to be vastly different from a consumer 15 years from now. So why even bring them up? And if you really want to start understanding balance sheets & income statements, then look at the fact that Apple has $20 cash a share. Which is great and provides a great floor if you ever see Apple breaking $50. At the same time, their revenues have stopped growing, which means high P/E no longer sustainable. Please enlighten us, where did you find this information about Apple's revenue and that it has "stopped growing"?
My statement stands. A big LOL at the fact that you are basing your decision from Wall Street "research". It's obvious to those who are not new to this game. Apple does not make anything vital, it's all luxury, hence completely dependent on the consumer. Apple caught a credit bubble, now that it's over, reality will hit the masses previously caught up with the I-crap fad. With food & energy inflation, I-crap does not stand much chance to even sustain its demand over the last 5 years, let alone grow it. And I am talking long term. Maybe you should take a look where this country is headed long-term. You kidding me? Try Yahoo finance, quarterly earnings. The pattern is clear. Credit starts imploding, demand for I-crap drops off.
Hmmmm Ok. Since we are both talking long term, there is no way to tell who is right, so I guess we will see in time. I will only add one thing, in the past couple hundred years betting against America has been a pretty risky play.
90,80,50,40 etc...might be better buy points...we are at the beginning of a recession so discretionary spending is fkd. I-junk doesnt run your car or fill your mouth or pay the rent.Before the ipod craze,AAPL went through boom bust cycles every 2 yrs or so...I assume the same will happen now.
I can't remember a more bearish setup for Apple than right now. iPod is no longer going to carry the water, the iPhone is competing in an incredibly crowded space (and with one, unliked carrier), and their MAC offerings are priced at a huge premium relative to PCs. With an exhausted, weak and confident-less consumer, Apple no buy.
I would also caution you to the fact that earnings are coming up and this is the most critical quarter. This is where they make the sale or don't and in a recession the first thing that can be delayed is new software upgrades. The street is reacting to the consumer index and the surveys they put out. They were buying tech (check out some of the better PMs) last summer and by now they would have cashed in already. And if anyone wanted to buy a computer (say their hard drive failed), say a student or worker. Apple doesn't offer anything under $1000. Why would buy from apple?
You're basing your decision on AAPL fanboyism & emotion, it's very apparent. I'm guessing you were one of the first to get the I-phone. I'm telling you how it is when it comes to ANY discretionary consumer staple. Apple happens to be in the business of semi-luxury toys for the masses, hence they will get hit worse. They aren't going anywhere, but the I-crap hype & boom are over. Have you checked the progress of US dollar value over the last 100 years? Obviously not.