You fall into the "black and white only" fallacy. Have you ever considered sometimes it is black, sometimes it is white and occasionally it can be grey too? Earnings? Fundamentals. Nothing else happening during an average week? Technicals. The trick is to know which one to listen to. And yes, unforeseeable events can happen anytime, there is no way to predict those.
What hole? Are you saying I'm trying to trade the wrong things? Why can't people here speak English instead of riddles?
Ok, I'll pick on. S&P e-mini. I'll guess "up" every time because it goes up more often than down. Is that >50%?
First off, it does NOT go up more often than it goes down. It goes up exactly the same number of times it goes down in all markets. It's just that in a bull market, the "up moves" are larger. What I'm saying... is that if what you're looking at isn't working, it's because you're looking at it wrong.
I think some here are using you as entertainment and at a forum like ET...it usually leads to my dick is bigger than your dick type of discussions (e.g. here's my mansion...now show me yours) Just take a deep breadth and walk away wrbtrader
I don't give a fuck what people are using me for. I'm trying to see if there's any sense to make out of this. Or any way to predictably get a higher return than I can elsewhere. I'm guessing that the answer is no and that none of you do, either.
When there's chaos in the world or many feel panic for whatever reasons (e.g. coronavirus)... Some people tend to freak out and not concerned with trying to predict to get a higher return. So yeah, for some...the answer is no and most probably do not care. wrbtrader