How can there be a crisis when so many

Discussion in 'Economics' started by stock_trad3r, Oct 10, 2008.

  1. sectors such as tech, energy, comodities, materials are reporting growing earnings?

    Apple sold 10 million iphones, beating estimates

    Online ad revenue continues to grow

    And IBM beat the consensus a few days ago

    Sure some sectors are hurting such as transport, finance, and consumer, but others are immune.

    There is a panic, but hardly a crisis and no recession. The only recession is mental one. GDP is STILL positive.
  2. Hmm...Although my views may not be shared by many here, the big funds that move the market would think otherwise.
  3. You are right, markets never went down. Everything is roses, rainbows and puppies for all!

    Seriously man, where was the S&P one year ago and where is it today? Mkts don't go down THIS much unless there are serious issues. Its one thing if its over hyped tech stocks, its another thing when the entire global banking sector is on the brink of disaster. The system may well be broken and unfixable. Who knows for sure, but its clear that the world is going to change BIG TIME as a result.
  4. No wonder you lost so much money. You are completely blind and gullible.

    Unprecedented banking crisis in Europe. They are in full on panic mode. You've obviously heard of our banking nightmare. The amount of derivative debt, much of it worthless now, is 10 TIMES the value of everything on earth. 550 TRILLION. US banks won't even lend to each other. Millions have lost their homes, and millions more will.

    Even if the GDP numbers you quote were accurate, it would be nothing compared to the tsunami that is going to hit a few months down the road. Europe and US both estimated to contract by 3% next year. We've been in recession since January Einstein. Hardly any economists use GDP because those numbers are so massaged by government, and lag. Only the government uses GDP for recession quoting purposes. Most economists use job losses as the major factor. job losses are growing rapidly due to major manufacturing and finance layoffs. GM, the largest company in the world a few years ago, is nearly worthless now. it may go bye bye completely. sales are off 75% in the midwest.

    By the way, energy and commodities are in absolute free fall like never before seen. Wait till 4th qtr earnings come out. They will be terrible. Who gives a fuck if Apple sells iphones like hot cakes. Its a great product. Its a phone!

    I am beginning to think you are just fucking with people because no one can be this stupid. As a result, this is my last reply to any of your insanely wrong posts.
  5. I think the idea (fear) here is that banks aren't 'banking' anymore. They are just sitting on thier money. No credit = no business.

    That being said, my friend's business is booked through January.

    Very interesting time.
  6. stock_trad3r,

    it's a conspiracy, or worse - the terrorists are shorting US markets!
    The US economy is fundamentally strong and new ATH on Dow, Nasdaq and S&P500 will ensue shortly - snuffing shorters.
    All the stuff about crisis and panic - they are all lies - and they should all be thrown into jail like Bush said today.

    Pass me those Xanaxes, I know you got 'em...
    As a neo-conservative - you are truly a piece of work. I said you should get a medal of loyalty, but you deserve a friggin' statue.
  7. I do not know how much money a company has invested in weirdo securities. A company may report great earnings but what if they also hold a large investment in collateralized debt obligations or sub-prime mortgages? I do not know the value of such securities because there is no standardized continuous trading in these contracts. Under these conditions I do not know what the balance sheet means. A company could have either positive or negative equity. If equity is negative, perhaps the common stock is worthless. I do not know. I am an outsider. The insiders might know what the company is worth. I can watch what insiders do by following the stock price. If stock price values are decreasing, perhaps below the value of a 400 day moving average or the lowest price in two years then I infer that insiders are not buying. If insiders are not buying and the stock is undervalued then it is because insiders can not or will not buy. To me the reason does not matter. I see price values decreasing and I sell. I might buy the stock back if conditions change.
  8. lrm21


    Umm Market is forward looking.

    Earnings right now are great but the market already made its money on 08 earnings. Where will earnings be in 09 and beyond.
  9. Hey stock, since you know how stocks and the market works, what are you buying these days? Since the stocks you love have been cut in half (at least), you must be like a kid in a candy store buying everything right?
  10. GDP is faked
    #10     Oct 12, 2008