Its an index. Lets say the 500 stocks that comprise the index do in fact have quantifiable non random behavior AT TIMES. You would have to find out when exactly the 500 stocks are exhibiting non random behavior and that wouldn't work anyway because while some of the stocks may be non random at the moment others would be so that wouldn't do it. And its impossible to analyze 500 stocks at a time anyway if your a sole trader. Maybe I'm wrong? Just a thought.
Good questions. Here is an idea. why not download some free data from yahoo and do some spreadsheet backtesting yourself? Formulate a hypothesis for non-random behavior, hen test it. you have open, high, low, and close to work with, along with date. while you are add it, download some bond data. Play with it a few or more months, and see if you find anything that has a stable bias over a broad range of parameters. Get curious and use what mental power you have to discover what makes the market tick. who knows, u may just answer your own question.
And yet the ES can trend, just as a river can move along in a given direction even though the water is made up of millions of individual molecules.
As long as your analysis is not random, that's all that matters. p.s. channels work great on SnP. Someone made a very good instructional video on how to draw channels... it is somewhere on the web.