How can anyone predict the crude prices?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by felixbocharov, Dec 21, 2015.

  1. Q

    Price discovery
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    The price discovery process (also called price discovery mechanism) is the process of determining the price of an asset in the marketplace through the interactions of buyers and sellers.The futures and options market serve all important functions of Price Discovery.The individuals with better information and judgement participate in these markets to take advantage of such information. When some new information arrives, perhaps some good news about the economy, for instance, the actions of speculators quickly feed their information into the derivatives market causing changes in price of derivatives. These market are usually the first ones to react the transaction cost is much lower in these market than in the spot market. Therefore these markets indicate what is likely to happen and thus assist in better price discovery.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_discovery

    Factors of sensitivity

    Recent changing in market regulations, post Lehman Bros, have outlined practices that affect the price discovery mechanism.[citation needed] Price discovery is sensitive to many factors. Consider for a specific execution venue the following inputs drive the price discovery mechanism.

    Number of buyers
    Number of sellers
    Number of items for sale in that trading period
    Number of recent sales or purchase price (this is the price as which items traded)
    Current bid price
    Current offer price
    Availability of funding
    Obligations of participants (e.g. regulation, exchange rules, Fund Policy)
    Cost of execution (market fees and tax)
    Cost, Availability and Transparency of pricing information in current and other execution venues.

    The cost of execution applies to all markets, even a street market trader may have to pay to have a stall, or invest time walking to a village market. These are not costs of production but a cost incurred to access the execution venue.

    Remember that price discovery is a summation of the total market's sentiment at a point in time: a multifaceted, aggregate view on the future. It is how every price in every market is determined. The market price is important as it is a factor in the pricing at off market execution venues and direct and indirect derived products. For example, the price of oil has a direct bearing on the cost of tomatoes in cold climates.

    UQ
     
    #31     Nov 6, 2016
    murray t turtle likes this.
  2. OT;
    Some look on mountain charts,line charts.....candle charts; which includes much of your info, but in picture form.Thanks
     
    #32     Nov 7, 2016
    OddTrader likes this.