How can anyone predict the crude prices?

Unless you're in that industry - you probably can't.

 

If you knew what was going to happen it would be easy to predict the future.

 

Even deeply entrenched pro's lose money-- we were in a copper fund that owned the mines and the entire supply chain--- and was managed by the top copper trader in the world--- guess what, the fund lost a fortune during the time we were invested---

 

Youd of thought oil prices would only go up as a trader learn not to think only react, too many crazy variables, its not that the supply demand has improved merely the outlook, millions of gallons of oil going for a third of there value a year ago, cause traders have dropped the price.

It should be a purely what it costs plus what the market will pay extra, not linked to a stupid nothing value, crazy world.

 

Seems simple to me. Choose if it is going up or down. You will be right 50% of time

 

Andy Hall who has been labeled the "God Trader" is down 500 million this year on oil.....

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/06/god-trader-andy-halls-fund-loses-500m.html

And this was back in July-Aug. Andy thinks the market is wrong and he is right. Guess what Andy the price is never "wrong" the price is what people are buying/selling it at


I am up this year on oil btw...

 

move to a oil producing country

 

It's not completely political. I suggest a little Taleb. Fooled by Randomness would be a good place to start. Mind you, I don't necessarily agree with him.

 

All the information in the world will not help you reverse a trend.

 

There are but how many of them are consistently right? I assumed that when you mentioned political factors, you were talking very long term investing (years).