Discussion in 'Stocks' started by razor99, May 11, 2007.
run to 28..
I'm wondering the same EXACT question 4 months later NICE BASE. We have 7 MONTH resistance @ $27 area up to $27.30.... This razor99 is the dilemma. Smart move would be to wait and buy after the break out $27 and take it to $30 real quick- ultimately $33.
But that's wishy washy stuff I'm leaning towards going in tomorrow, we have sort of taken out 7 months worth of declining tops here & I wish there was more money flow and volume.. but my sense is it's an explosive name. These South African contracts they should get most of them that would be a great light to the shares that's due any day I think... Support at $22.75 - $23.75 stock is now $25.88 UNDER your $27....
You could easily push me over the edge with a good reply! It's just a feeling but I see a crooked number coming with this name an up or down $1.70 sort of day, just a feeling right now but the technical picture is cleaning up quick.. what say ye Razor? ~ stoney
If they don't get many of the SASSA contract it will get killed so it could be down/up 25% on that announcement. That said it's pretty cheap valuation, and expanding in africa. Where else are you going to get exposure to nigeria and zambia?Besides if you lose money at least it's going to a humanitarian cause
.... I know SA announcement is the determining factor no doubt. here's a fun Motley Fool piece I found under the stks news headline...
Net 1 UEPS Waiting in Queue
By Rich Smith September 4, 2007
Well, the news is out, and while not as bad as I had feared, the free cash flow news at Net 1 UEPS (Nasdaq: UEPS) still fell somewhat short of good.
The company reported its full-year fiscal 2007 numbers last week, revealing that free cash flow for the entire year amounted to $61.7 million. A far sight better than where the firm stood at the end of the fiscal third quarter, but still down 16% from last year's $74 million. (On the plus side, the dramatic close to the year showed the firm nearly doubling its free cash flow in the fourth quarter alone.)
In more GAAP-centric news, Net 1 grew its U.S. dollar-denominated revenues 14% for the year in comparison to fiscal 2006, and its U.S. dollar-denominated profits per share 7.7%. In response to these results, CEO Serge Belamant expressed pleasure with the "quality of our earnings, our growth, and our cash conversion rate."
But what about the future?
I'm glad you asked, because it gives me a chance to discuss one of the most important factors in Net 1's future success, which Foolish colleague Bill Mann pointed out to me just a couple of days ago. Specifically, the fact that the South African government has put the contracts for distribution of social assistance grants throughout its nine provinces up for rebid. While a decision on the contract awards was to have been issued by July 13, Belamant advised last week that he is still "awaiting the outcome of the [South African Social Security Agency] SASSA tender evaluation with cautious optimism."
Why optimism? Because Net 1 currently holds the majority of these SASSA contracts and, as the incumbent, should logically have a leg up in the rebid process.
Why cautious? Perhaps because the SASSA money makes up such a large part of Net 1's business. In fiscal 2006, I calculated the firm's SASSA-derived revenue at approximately $102 million, or 52% of revenues. By fiscal 2007, SASSA-derived revenues had risen to $130 million, which equates to 58% of total revenues. Perhaps more importantly, these revenues grew 27% year over year, or nearly twice as fast as the firm's rate of total revenue growth.
Belamant may believe that "The future success of Net1 will ... be directly proportional to our international market penetration." But from where I sit, the firm's immediate success depends on its ability to hold on to, and, with any luck, expand, its role in the distribution of South African government largesse.
>> I wish all their coverage was that good! I can't understand this Caps thing to save my life.~stoney
Ok I'm In @ $26.
Can't explain folks. I always go by instinct and grouping of letters in my brain for the final buy decision I'm just staring at this stock and it wants to explode. I know it. You know it. Does the South African Government know it? One of the major rules of investing is not to have one HUGE customer-- in this case a full 50% of sales. But as an astute poster just mentioned where else are you going to get good African exposure. I actually like their geothermal power company-ORA- but more on that later.
For now the important thing is stoney is in UEPS. 500 shares.
Ladies & Gentlemen LAST CALL UEPS EXPRESS!!!
LAST CALL, blink blink the lights wake up folks, BAR CAR IS NOW CLOSED SORRY. SMOKING emporium IS OPEN hookah OK Let's just say today could be the day...
>>UEPS surges 90c & approaches a test of KEY 7 month overhead resistance in the 27-27.40 zone
This is the area I told you about. Expect considerable buying if we can get through. Expect considerable crying if were fail to.
Hope To See You On The Other Side Of Thirty!
I'm on the cusp of buying another bunch of this just to convince you all that you haven't missed out on the UEPS express. She was rolling out of the station and just a little backup of cars is keeping us in the tunnel, we are up $1.40 or something today I've been talking you all through this one from the very beginning heck it's not even my thread officially. I Usurped it!
Do I have to buy a boatload up here to make my point?
That this is going to SURGE! ~ Hummmm
Don't challenge stoney I might get crazy.
Where are those damn SA contracts anyway I'm so
scared of that news!!!!
razor it's right where you had it in May! That's why i
think huge buy orders could hit this name after it gets done pressing through 7 month lateral price resistance near 27.40. Volume expands TODAY! & technicals surging! This is a classic set up. ~
Boy this is tough resistance folks but we are finally through. the tunnel is now clear and we can again take on passengers for the only non Chinese ride that's going to give you a quick $4.
My fellow ETer's the reaction to this name has not been good from you all. Thus I have done the unthinkable I have GREATLY overweighed a risky name! Yes I just sent the hedge fund the note. Now we are playing with grown up bucks. Choose to stay on the side of the track if you will...
Wait. Who's that? Who's that guy covered in Cowboy memorabilia? With that silly helmet and long hair... Romo... Topdown??? Is that you....??? Well Get on Board friend!!!!!!
NET 1 UEPS TECHNOLOGIES INC COM NEW (UEPS: NASDAQ)
Financial : Consumer Financial Services
Last Price Today's Change Bid (Size) Ask (Size) Volume Trade
27.75 +0.48 (+1.76%)........... ~ stoney
Well I'm loaded to the gills with this name now. the more you all don't reply the more I buy.
UEPS surges to new session & 3 week rally highs as well as 6 month price highs! Now +77c...
Oh if only those contracts would come in a good way.... TD are U In?
Update* UEPS crosses $28 for the first time since last February, now +$96c ~ stoney
Alright I know what you are thinking but it's not true.
This WILL move like the rest of stoney's picks in fact I think it will be my number one performer this year!!!
The more you all don't show up for roll call here the more I buy. I just bought more five seconds ago it's now my SINGLE LARGEST HOLDING!!! If I should blow up here it is of course entirely your fault out their in ET land. I have had no razor99 love no one else has apparently bought this stock. Hum. Something about Africa you can't deal with? Typical.
I know of a man. who was a man. in the bizz. for many years. trading. he's fast. too fast for me but he has an institutional friend no not the type you lock up the type that invests huge amounts of money he's just come back from a trip - you know where, South Africa, his report to the man who used to be in the bizz is so glowing I have more confidence today than yesterday in UEPS that everything is clicking...~ stoney
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