How bad is the Republicans' demographic problem?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by AK Forty Seven, Feb 27, 2013.


    How bad is the Republicans' demographic problem? See for yourself

    By Chris Wilson

    Just to get out ahead of the pack a little, I’m going to go ahead and call the 2020 presidential election for the Democrats.

    I'm less sure about 2016, though it's not looking good for the GOP. These forecasts are based on extremely simple math: Take the current rates of turnout and party preference for the four major racial and ethnic groups and plug them in to the Census Bureau’s population projections for the 18-and-over population for the next 50 years.

    If you simply project the present into the future, then it’s pretty clear that Democrats have this thing in the bag—"thing" referring to the future of democracy. But we can assume that the future will not look exactly like the present, which is why this widget allows you to manipulate the percentages of each group that turn out to vote and which party they vote for. It’s when you start messing with the dials in this interactive that you realize the massive amount of trouble the GOP faces if it does not change its image with minority voters—or, as we'll soon be calling them, “plurality voters.” Here, you can try it yourself:


    You will notice that the default turnout rates, from the 2012 election, are very low for Hispanic- and Asian-Americans. This is because we’re measuring voter turnout for the entire voting age population, including those who are not citizens or are otherwise ineligible to vote. Going forward, a significantly larger proportion of both demographics will have been born in the U.S. As the Pew Hispanic Center wrote in a study of the Hispanic electorate published shortly after the 2012 election, “That vast majority (93%) of Latino youths are U.S-born citizens and thus will automatically become eligible to vote once they turn 18.” The report was titled “An Awakened Giant.”

    Even a few ticks upward in Hispanic turnout have major benefits for the Democratic Party, which stands to draw less than half its support from non-Hispanic white voters by the end of the decade. Meanwhile, the Republicans don’t have a tremendous amount of ground left to gain among white voters, who will shrink both in total numbers and as a share of the electorate in the coming elections.

    Predictions are easy to mock. In recent elections, however, partisanship by racial and ethnic background has remained highly predictable in the face of countless calamities. The demographics of the electorate are going to change so rapidly in the next eight years that politics will seem unrecognizable, but these party loyalties may very well be intact. This fact is not difficult to recognize whatsoever.
  2. Lucrum


    It's not a "republican problem" per se. It is more evidence our once great nation is morphing into a third world shit hole.
  3. it’s pretty clear that Democrats have this thing in the bag—"thing" referring to the future of democracy.


    That is some funny shit.....:cool:
  4. future of democracy.


    coming to a theater near you.

    Broke ass bitch Democracy
  5. It's not a republican problem. It's a problem for America. One day all those minorities, soon to be majorities, are going to show up for their monthly check and it's not going to be there. What'cha gonna' do then? If you're under 40 and white, you really need to be looking at alternative places to live. This place is going up for grabs before 2050. Probably sooner.

    Let me edit this. If you're under 40, of any skin color, and expect to work for your money, GET OUT. You will be taxed into poverty and then blamed for not doing enough.
  6. pspr


    In the defense of Republicans chances I present these charts that show were in the Shit Hole America will be in 2016.

    <img src=>

    <img src=>
  7. Ricter


    Mexico's real GDP growth over the past decade doesn't look so bad, and that country is full of "minorities".
  8. jem


    its much easier to grow gdp when it starts low.
    govt spending can actually have a close to 1 to 1 return.

    right now the last us govt spending ration was 20 dollars of spending to make one dollar of gpd.

    virtually all our growth must come from the private sector and now we are taxing the growth out of it.
  9. Lucrum


    Mexicans aren't a minority in Mexico, dumb ass.
  10. Can't wait to visit Chinatown in Mexico. How many languages are spoken in Mexico? Besides Mexican. lamo...:D
    #10     Feb 27, 2013