You very well may be right. But you've got to admit that *statistically*, the odds have got to be in your favor if you start leaning to the short side now. I certainly don't suggest betting the farm here. I'm simply looking to wade in slowly, and wait for further confirmation before committing more capital...
That I have to disagree with. There is going to be one of those unexpected sell offs that take everyone by surprise, even the bears.
If I had a lot, and I mean a LOT of money and wanted to put it in play with the idea I'd be experiencing some big pain in the meantime, I probably would do what you say. But this is a new ball game, with a government that is quite literally fixing the game so shorts wont win. That means all kinds of risks. What if they decide to outlaw ALL shorting, because they damned well know that the market is propped on nothing but the printing press. What do you do then?
I would wait until the 5% gap the next day then sell futs with both hands... (remember the ensuing action last time they tried that move Ivan?)
not to offend your sensibility but outlawing all short selling has happened in the past in 3rd world countries when their government and economy have faced dire circumstances. to extend your hypothesis the closing of the exchanges is not beyond the realm of possibility if the US government decides to seize all financial assets under the guise of preventing chaos.
Puts do provide principal protection and you at least define a floor/maximum loss. You can sell OTM calls to help offset the cost of the insurance and still provide for upside potential up to the strike price of the call.
Only 2 posts and you want everyone here to mark your words? charlie daniels Registered: Mar 2010 Posts: 2
If the number of posts were a sign of intellect, well, let's just say that would really be funny based on this forum.