That sounds like an arbitrary prediction, and whats the basis of it? Has your strategy served you well the past few weeks? as far as i'm concerned, market is ready to run. Not ready for a retest of 1550-1555 support until we move up higher.. 1590-1620 is an easy target from here. Just a week or two of continued buying will take us there. This is the technical breakout on the S&P everyone has been waiting for. close on highs, very bullish, credit crisis & subprime blown over, even jobs strong enough to halt a continued acceleration of weakening of the dollar. again still buying FXI puts november, but only to hedge out my other longs. This is a bull market, and there's no bearish news flow on the way any time soon. this is a great opportunity to sell CAD against USD, with oil about to falter. (and sell JPY against USD, with carry trade about to gain steam again)
Long run up from the lows, and today smelled like the bears finally giving up. It will probably be reported as the Street realizing the Fed has no reason to cut at the next meeting, and therefore pulling back. Also, earnings are coming out starting next week, and we've been buying on the rumor of that, so it'll be sell on the news when they start coming out. The breakout is very bullish longer term, btw, you are correct about that. In my longer term accounts I'll be buying on any dips. But in my short term trading accounts I'll be selling and shorting.
Assuming ES. Worked for roughly 7 points but the risk based on the distance between HOD and LOD was roughly 14. Anek
You're right, in this case it is better to sit out or put a stop below the rth low which would have been about 6.5 points. Another way to play would have been to buy the afternoon break-out. Gary Smith in How I trade for a living has described this method. I did not do anything. The range was too big for me to risk any money.