Hey Waggie, Do you have some data that shows this precendence by any chance? Interesting in general though.
No, I do not have any statistical evidence to this effect. Only through 10 years of floor trading experience trading stock-index futures do I come upon this conclusion. Think of it this way . . . When the market is in a strong uptrend, how many times have you watched a lower opening in the futures, get gobbled up and close the gap almost immediately, within the first 5 minutes of the opening? The opposite is true after a big decline, with a GAP opening Higher.
Amen Waggie. Well, I'm the sucker. Lost my gains and a few k's more. Stopped on the high tick. I'm getting short again here, but not with real size. I'd rather short on the way down then pyramid up like I usually do. Good luck folks.
Yea, that makes sense to me. Also I hope that my post didnt come off as flaming anything, as I find that there is way too much of that already going on at ET. So in recapping youd find it bullish if after a big move down we dont close the morning gap up and continue higher, like this morning. Thanks again, Stil
The futures Daily Pivot is 1111.00 for the June ES. All trading above this has had a bullish bias, with resistance coming right in at the first resistance level, known as R1 at 1118.50 ( the high thus far being 1118.00 ) I used the R1 as my target for a rally, with all trading Above 1111.00, then I reversed and put some shorts out there, but did not hold them long enough, unfortunately covering too early. Looks like a "chop-chop, fizz-fizz" session thus far. Low volume and everyone exhausted from the full week's trading. Just my 2 cents.
P2.... do you only (mostly) trade from the short side? as I recall from reading your posts you are almost always looking to go one direction... short. You must hate those semis. Do you base that on fundamentals, technicals or some seasonal situation.. or a combination. Can't blame you however after the past 3-4 years of down. My personal view is they should disallow so many hedge funds, put a cap on them!! Personally I think they screwed up the markets. Maybe there is no basis for that view but as an options trader for many years all I see now by way of volume is large blocks from the hedge funds. I can't even get smaller size off many times above the market. No public guys to take me up on my offer. Sickening really. :eek: Ic E
What kind of a "cap" would you suggest putting on a $70 billion dollar industry like hedge-funds? Last time I checked, most people were for Free Markets and not regulatory controls . . . This is America, right?
thanks... ((b.t.w. got you a signed souvenir corked bat for your collection to place next to SF Bond's empty steroid bottles!)) ICe
Iceman- I think you're being sarcastic. Not sure. Why cap hedge funds. We are the smart money now. I don't trade from only one side. I have been shorting the entire way up in this market. Luckilly, I have been net long the whole way up. Made pretty good money. I blew out the vast majority of my longs from October onwards. Just started pressing the short side about two weeks ago. I just wanted to update you guys that I am taking off my mso position here. Made 50c. That's much less than i expected/wanted. If she can't get it up in a big up market, then it's toast. You're on your own there, but I'm keeping a few k's just for giggles. Also adding a some more SMH on the short side with a stop at the high (where I covered last time). Pretty light volume today on an up day. Not sure if it's just a friday (how's the weather in ny?) or what but it could be a key.