i don't know what you mean by next transaction per se. the idea seems to be a variation on the martingale betting strategy, which, in a nutshell, is: the longer the string of losses (for example, string of down days in a market), the more likely the next bet to be a winner (up day in the market). so you increase the bet each time you lose . . . nice try. it's an interesting mathematical concept, but it's not a reliably money management technique, the risk of ruin is very high. . . see kaufman, chapter 22, theory of runs. it's even been programmed, but i am not know if it work in the real pracitce Varima Garch