How About a Depression that Lasts for 20 Years?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by observer67, Dec 11, 2009.

  1. Well, that doesn't work either.

    Government jobs are "funded" by redistribution of income and wealth from the private sector.

    If the private sector dies (due to overwhelming by government imposed expenses, taxes, etc), the entire system comes to a halt... having "killed the goose which lays the golden egg" kind of thing.

    When the public sector becomes so large that the private sector can no longer support it, EVERYTHING DIES!!
     
    #11     Dec 11, 2009
  2. lol. so true.

    The same holds true of the inverse: all crashes come to an end also.
     
    #12     Dec 11, 2009
  3. I agreee with Scat above.

    As for your service industry solution - it was already implemented in the 1980s until about now. A service industry is heavily reliant on increasing debt and increasing asset valuations to keep up with a growing population.

    As such debt levels grow - they risk overshoot, and thus asset deflation. That's where we are now.

    You know what's really crazy? Let's think unconventially here - remove the conventional wisdom and everything we accept as truth. And think about this:

    Economies expand to meet needs. Somehwere, sometime, we have accepted a truth that 95% of the population SHOULD be employed, working 40 hrs a week, with two weeks vacation - and that their earned surplus can be stored for future use in retirement - let's say 20 years worth.

    Now I ask you all - is this possible? Aren't there limits? Shouldn't an economy grow on it's own? What if there isn't enough work for 95% Or what if a 40 hour workweek isn't needed due to technological advnces?

    Who came up with the 40 hour work week with Sat-Sunday off anyway? Wasn't it really the farmers from 150 years ago and beyond? Can we even use that model today? 100 years ago, 30% of the US was in Agriculture, today it's only 2-3% AND THEY FEED A HELL OF A LOT more people. What did the rest do after the agriculural revolution, and whatever it is they did or still do - are they all still needed to do it?

    Lots to think about.
     
    #13     Dec 11, 2009
  4. Classic example of the downside of "productivity" GreenScam so proudly crowed about..
     
    #14     Dec 11, 2009
  5. Why not?

    Japan actually had two lost decades, and they haven't got out of it.
     
    #15     Dec 11, 2009
  6. So what we are really talking about is third world economy? oh ok.

     
    #16     Dec 11, 2009
  7. True enough, however, EVERY SINGLE inane idea will be attempted before we reach that inevitable conclusion. The final act will more than likely be confiscation of tax deferred assets. I can already sense that they have their eyeballs set on that gigantic piggybank. The rhetoric will pick up once this rally dies off in the not too distant future.
     
    #17     Dec 11, 2009
  8. I keep reading about the Japan lost decade which has never translated to reality.

    On my last visit to Japan, everyone seemed happy and nothing has changed.

    Don't believe everything that's printed. Stock market performance is irrelevant to daily life.




     
    #18     Dec 11, 2009
  9. Unless you are trying to retire. America is going to become a country of savers just like Japan. With the stock market being in this decade or two decade long bear market, people are going to continue to pull their money out of the market and put it in the bank, or gold, or silver or anything but the market. There is absolutely no reason to keep any money in a Bear market that will probably last at least another 10 years. Just ask 60 year old Japanese people how their retirement nest egg is going.



    [​IMG]

    Future of the Dow
     
    #19     Dec 11, 2009
  10. Another possibility.

    [​IMG]

    This would have been the better option if they would have just left everything alone, the banks failing, etc. We would have been through it a lot quicker.
     
    #20     Dec 11, 2009