Housing #'s down 3.9%%%% 848,000 didnt get the 7% jump

Discussion in 'Economics' started by S2007S, Mar 26, 2007.

  1. Thank you and I agree with your thoughts on how this country is great because of the blend of cultures and ideas. I only hope people as a whole are more respectful of one another and teach their children the importance of love and human life.

    I hope we don't decay as nation as so many civilizations have in the past. Creating imbalances through selfish ambition and disregard for others.
     
    #61     Mar 26, 2007
  2. " A week ago, one open house attracted 100 people to an Upper West Side one-bedroom; a $2.475 million house in the Park Slope neighborhood of Brooklyn sold in a day."
     
    #63     Mar 26, 2007

  3. I know you aren't addressing me, but let me chime in.

    TF, New York is strong, no doubt.

    I haven't heard any argue with you that the prime areas, and now even secondary areas of New York, are strong.

    I just said that New York won't always be as strong as it is now, especially when we enter the next bear market. When brokers and investment bankers see their incomes drop, all those 3 million and up condos won't move as quickly, either new, or on the secondary markets.

    Your response seems to indicate we will never have another bear market. It's my opinion that this is denying the inevitable cycles of history.

    And here's a hedge: New York is qualitatively different, juts like London is, from the rest of the country. There are families in New York that own brownstones or other properties that will never sell their property. They'd rather, as any intelligent person in their shoes would want to do as well, prefer to pass the property down to successive generations of their family.

    New York is one of the few cities I've seen where core properties (Manhattan for example) are literally not for sale at any price.

    There are weaker, tertiary sectors that won't weather the inevitable downturns that we will see in the future as well, though.

    Cheers.
     
    #64     Mar 26, 2007
  4. Yes that is impressive, I won't argue that. I only hope they won't mind keeping the industry as a whole afloat. (They might need to order more checks.) j/k



    Thanks for the link. I enjoyed the article.
     
    #65     Mar 26, 2007
  5. blast19

    blast19


    Good article...thanks.

    I don't believe the city is selling everything in sight. It's not feasible and one example of 100 people showing up is likely an anomaly.

    Condo developers in the city are finding themselves having to preserve some units as rentals from what I've been reading. NY is an anomaly and few things could ever make it retrace, but I don't think it's impenetrable and that every single unit will fly off shelves.

    Who the hell wants to pay $2 million for a 2 bedroom condo and then pay $4k in fees/month on top of it? It's pretty stupid...Manhattan is nice...but I'm moving to Spain or somewhere else in Europe next year for the quality and cost both...even with the devalued dollar I can live in Barcelona for half the price or less.
     
    #66     Mar 26, 2007
  6. plenty of people are willing to pay millions to live in manhattan. Avg apt. prices are $1mil. You need to broaden your horizons... 10,000 sale transactions a year in manhattan.
     
    #67     Mar 26, 2007
  7. one thing i haven't seen mentioned at all are the tax repecusions on short sales for the borrower
     
    #68     Mar 26, 2007
  8. That's a good point because there are repercussions short and long term. This was part of Japans previous problems that we now face.

    This played out in Japan from 1989 through 2004 or about 15 years of liquidation. The
    killer blow in Japan was the high real estate prices which trapped everyone in real estate not wanting to sell for
    tax reasons until it was too late after they had over margined their holdings to get cash to speculate with.

    The chart below is a repeat of that Japanese cycle over the past 15 years or so. Japan is breaking out now,
    but that is pulling assets out of the US making our markets even weaker. We are now at that 1996 period where
    Japan and the US diverged. We will now diverge down while Japan diverges up along with China and Asia.

    This isn't one of my charts and is several months old but is one possibility of future outcome.
     
    #69     Mar 27, 2007
  9. Read IRS pub. 523 about that situation.
     
    #70     Mar 27, 2007