Housing #'s down 3.9%%%% 848,000 didnt get the 7% jump

Wow, this got off-track from the original theme. I originally mentioned this not as a slam to mexicans but how Mexicans are actually being manipulated politically and socially for various agendas. Mostly political.

For the record, I've got nothing against Mexicans or any other nationality, race, creed or religion.

I've heard the jokes and the slurs since I was a child and always found them disturbing. I think alot of other kids did too, you could see it in their eyes and hear it in their nervous laughter. Deep inside we all know it's wrong.

Very few, MYSELF included, had the guts to make a stand or simply say "That's just wrong" or "I don't want to hear that crap."

Growing older and somewhat wiser,having children of my own and traveling to various countries and meeting other people has reinforced my beliefs that we're all the same basically the same.

I've heard people bash China for making things cheaper and also the Mexicans for working cheaper.

I think this is a two for one bigotry special, they get to slam a race they don't like and attach a monetary loss with it for added effect.

...and we wonder why the world is so messed-up.

I apologise for my inability to effectively convey my thoughts and regret any feelings of anger that I may have caused.

I guess if I do have any dislike toward people it wouldn't be any race, colour or religion; it would be toward selfish individuals with little regard for others and especially human life. Hurting or killing others so casually. Even children...I can't imagine.

Mods if possible please remove this reference from my prior post.

Thank you,

infolode

 

This whole national housing melt down is a big joke. Yes there will be poor areas that will get hurt,, but prime areas like manhattan are still thriving. Check out this building in manhattan.. its been on the market for 3 days and is already 20% sold out. Prices are starting at $2mil. Brokers there have no issues moving units like these priced around $2k per sq ft. As long as unemployment stays low, mortgage rates are low ( i am talking about the majority of prime borrowers) and the stock market doesnt crash - housing will thrive in most strong metro markets, especially like NYC.

www.thelucida.com

 

It will catch up to NYC when we have the next bear market.

 

What if there is no bear market, and the market just trades sideways for a long time. Not much of an argument saying that NYC re-market will crash has to be contingent upon a bear market for stocks.. lol. Thats like saying someone will die when they get very sick!!

 

How long do you possibly think a bull market can go on for before it actually falls apart???? For some reason many think this housing drop is a dream, that corporate profits grow at double digits forever, that inflation is under control and jobs plentiful....come on....

 

Cycles: Interesting refrences from then, to now. In 1836-1837 the massive real estate bust in the United States led
to a five year stock market decline and economic depression. In 1907 the public was ‘tapped out’ with excessive
investment leverage and couldn’t meet margin calls resulting in interest rate spikes that practically bankrupted
the New York Stock Exchange. During the same decade Teddy Roosevelt, the great populist, enacted legislation
to save the natural forests and set up the national parks in the first CO2 conversion experiment (we make it trees
eat it). Later years saw the first income tax on millionaires to pay for all this and then the trust busting
corporation bashing. Finally we had the World War and the rise of disease and epidemics. In our next big cycle
30 years later in 1937 we find the ‘dust bowl’ green house effect, Florida virtually uninhabitable for 15 years
due to huge tropical storms and weather pattern changes, the stock market collapsing for five years and the rise
of the World Wars. Forty years later in 1977 we had the Democrats and Jimmy Carter come to town with lots of
big spending ideas about income redistribution setting the stage for the greatest US inflation since the Civil
War. 1977 saw the start market erode all year and no major bull market bottom for five years.
The big hedge funds now going public are smart people. They know that we are entering a long-term
economic decline and liquidity crisis. The recent credit bubble has been pricked and the reaction all around the
world shows that it will have global repercussions with global contractions. A lot of countries will sneeze and
many, many, more will catch pneumonia. Taxes will go up, productivity will go down along with growth, and
the P.E. of the average stock will go back to historic norms near 8-10 times earnings rather than 18. These big
hedge funds now have portfolios with huge real estate holdings and if the truth be told (and you can bet it
won’t) those real estate holding are worth a lot less today than they are listed for, and as every banker who ever
blew up making mortgage loans knows- you don’t borrow short to lend long. In other words you don’t borrow
through 30-day commercial paper to fund a 30-year loan. These hedge funds have done exactly that having
leveraged up their balance sheet with borrowed money, derivatives, and big politically active investors who can
redeem their capital on 90 days notice. Don’t kid yourself, these funds must go public and sell while the money
is still there. One more break like we had in March and the game will be over for years. Those last two big
IPO’s- China and NYMEX, were the top tick of the market- this Black Stone will also turn out to be the black
stone around the public’s neck as they walk off the plank.
Social Security is a problem that at least can be mentioned. No one, however, talks anymore about the $50
+ Trillion derivative problem floating around the world creating all this excess liquidity. Buying stocks with
options, futures, ETF’s, two to one leveraged mutual funds, and all kinds of dealer margins, gives the
appearance of lots of money just waiting to buy every dip on every stock. Corporations are buying back stock in
record amounts- why? It’s because they can’t expand their businesses except through purchases of smaller
entities. The demand just isn’t there any more. Slowing demand is a sign of financial stress. Don’t get caught
into thinking that since the US markets are highly regulated and margined on average at about 15% (25% on
stocks, 5% to 10% on bonds and 1 % on options), that a derivative blow up will be handled by the system in a
routine fashion. Do you really think the investors in China, India, the Middle East, or other places plan on
making good on their highly leveraged positions if a meltdown occurs?

Silly comparisons; probably but if you're a trader- day, position, swing...whatever, it may not hurt to keep your eye on cycles.

 

WOW! One whole building sold 20% of its residences in 3 days! WOW! Oh man, that's INSANE! There is overdevlopment to a large degree in Manhattan according to more and more articles.

New York is still one of the most desirable cities in the world to live in along with Paris, London(maybe), and a few others. Manhattan is pretty cheap for a lot of foreigners now with the Euro and Pound so strong as well.

But there is still a lot of reports of condo-builders assuming the position half-way through and realizing that they'll probably end up renting out.

A lot of people in this area, New York, are supposedly also being helped out by wealthy parents with their first apartments. New York will probably slow down at some point...but beautiful buildings in desirable locations will always be desirable.

First guy I met when I moved here was a British guy who bought a place. Totally randomly ran into an Italian guy I know today in Washington Sq. Park who is visiting and wants to move here. Europeans who could live virtually anywhere in the EU seem to like it here...I've met a lot of people from Europe living here...it's still an anomaly for America as far as wealthy immigrants.

 

infolode, it was nice of you to write that. I grew up hearing slurs against Mexicans. Besides border towns and Mexico City, I feel 10X safer in Mexico than in the US and people are much friendlier I find on average...so weird how people with no knowledge of a culture or their history/traditions will slur them because they're xenophobes. Sad, especially because immigrants are what has made this country great.

 

Dude, you are clueless whats going on in NYC. Stop listening to all of the BS and gloom and doom crap. Read the article from the NYTIMES a few weeks ago,,

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/19/n...63a668a&ei=5070

 

Broken link.