Not a prediction, but liked that Wall Street Journal article good friday-section c1,mentioning CALPERS sold or 'slimmed down''almost 7 billion worth of real estate; however that's notably LESS than 7% of thier pension plan. Homebuilding sector both on/off wall street looks strong & technicaly strong enough to still occasionaly buy & sell. Dont know much about condos. but ; homebuilder leaders uptrending again
Interesting article over at CBSMarketwatch: The risks from falling home prices with a neat little link to Economic and Real Estate Trends. And Study Identifies Regions Most Likely to Lose Value So we get a decline. Big whoop.
There is something very screwy about that stat. Many people move to rancho sante fe, la jolla and del mar and claim to live elsewhere to save on state taxes. I can think of dozens of other reasons why that stat it off.
What I like about the chart on the first page of the PMI link, it starts right after the big decline in the late 80's. Subsequent charts show the declines in the NE and West. Nothing like showing a smooth trend. Underlines why housing nationally may not be in a bubble, but, we've been here before in the west...... I don't give a rats a$$ about housing in KC, Dallas, or Des Moines, because I don't live there. Here in So Cal, it's a bubble. When it ends, I don't care, it will. Old trader, There are a TON of rental homes/condos available around here in So Cal. Lots of them just recently went through escrow. People here re-fi or mortgage their primary residence and buy rentals with the proceeds. These are the players that will get burned, because they didn't make the profit going into the transaction and will be the first to flood the market when the tide turns. It happened in the late eighties in California and will happen again soon. When I hear people who have no business being a landlord, wanting to get involved, the end is near. Some of the very uninformed are going to get killed. My Ex-GF was talking about RE, and she can't even keep her own financial house in order...... get the idea. Weekend radio use to be littered with shows about stock investing, now, it's flooded with RE shows. Radio telling people to Re-fi and buy SFR rental units. Just my 2 cents.....
In California, the traditional fixed-rate loan is in danger of becoming extinct. According to recent LoanPerformance data, the percentage of new loans that are adjustable in Santa Cruz and San Diego was 85%; in Oakland 84%; in Santa Rosa 81%; in Los Angeles 74%. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-afford3apr03,0,4296610.story?coll=la-home-headlines
foreclosures up 57% http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/apr05/315969.asp?format=print I spoke with a RE broker about it, he said it is impossible to have a foreclosure in this highly demanded market.
Mortgages take one-week dip "U.S. mortgage rates fell in the week ending Thursday with the benchmark 30-year loan dropping below 6 percent, Freddie Mac said in its weekly survey. The mortgage agency (FRE: news, chart, profile) said the national average interest rate on the 30-year mortgage was 5.93%, down from 6.04% a week earlier." --------- We still in that "rising rate environment?"
I personally like being in the middle of a market frenzy. To many of you have spent the last 4 years on the sidelines and missed out on incredible profit opportunities in real estate. Statistics show that the frenzy is localized not national. Dooms day forecasters need to qualify this before they call a top on the real estate market (Yes San Diego and Boston are getting over heated, but it is foolish to lump all real estate in the same category) over generalizing can make the right idea wrong. Prudent speculation in real estate has and still proves to be the best place for stellar returns. By limiting your downside you can participate until sentiment changes....... Then simply move to the next gold rush. Thats my approach anyway. Good luck and happy speculating.