That chart is meaningless for this discussion. Nobody here has argued for a nationwide home crash....all posts were in reference to the "bubble" areas.
Bring inflation and wage growth during the 70âs into the picture and you will find that your case is Chicken Little.
In my area from 1980-84 there was a real estate decline of about 25%...at least. Perhaps if Robert Campbell is still reading this thread he can fill in the exact amount as his area in San Diego tracks almost exactly the Los Angeles/Orange/Ventura areas. This today about the "numbers" the NAR is (self) promoting...OWP http://www.xanga.com/russwinter Thursday, March 23, 2006 NAR Reaches Up Ass, Pulls Out Some Numbers. The rectifiers at the Ministry of Truth have spewn forth some existing homes numbers that only Ernest P "Do I look like I have stupid written all over my face" Worell would appreciate. Incredibly the cognoscenti take this data as credible? According to this "source", existing-home sales rose in February following five months of decline, indicating a stabilization is taking place in the market, according to the Nat'l Asso. of Realtors (NAR). Use truthful information at your own peril for trading though, as the Ken Lay school of the new underworld order of liars is running a full court press. Total existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 11.1 percent to a pace of 1.60 million in February, and were 1.9 percent above a year earlier. In the West, existing-home sales increased 5.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.44 million in February, but were 10.6 percent below February 2005. Existing-home sales in the South fell 2.5 percent in February to a level of 2.69 million, but were 3.1 percent higher than a year ago. Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 19.2 percent to an annual sales rate of 1.18 million units in February, and were 2.6 percent higher than February 2005. Fortunately, in today's world we have bloggers who keep a very close intimate look on what is typically their local markets. Let me introduce a few to you, and see what they are saying about February, specifically in the Northeast, as I've discussed trends in Florida, Arizona, and California in previous blog posts. First from northern New Jersey, where Northeast sales were supposedly up per the NAR, " Let me note that these sales volumes do not reflect what we saw in Northern NJ over the same time period. Sales in Northern NJ (GSMLS only) declined approximately 18% in February (1705 to 1395)." From No. Virginia, Comparing February 2006 with February 2005........ * Single family home sales down 16 percent. * Condo sales down 27 percent * Single family home listings up 275 percent * Condo listings up 429 percent From Boston, February 2006 MAR data is in. Sales fell for 5th consecutive month and were 1.7% below February 2005. Inventory is up from a year ago by 40.5%. Nominal year over year prices fell for 2nd month in a row. Hot of the press from the West, where the bogus NAR reports sales off 10% yoy in February. The CAR has a bit more bearish number at 15.5% off yoy for California. Look at that 6.7 month inventory! Another 3% drop in prices as well. The CAR "economist" prediction of "modest single digit" appreciation this year is patently absurd. Sales in Arizona, down a mere 24% yoy. And gee, while we are at it, Florida's came today as well, sales down 20% yoy. NAR would have you believe the South was up 3%. From "The Wisdom of Crowdsâ: âDuring a true bubble, price and value lose all connection. Prices rise because people expect them to keep rising. At least they do until the moment when they donât. Then comes the stampede for the exits.â
U.S. Feb. new home sales down 10.5% to 1.08 mln units By Greg Robb Last Update: 10:00 AM ET Mar 24, 2006 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. new home sales slumped 10.5% in February to their lowest level since May 2003, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. The decline was larger than forecast. Economists expected sales to slip to 1.21 million. Sales in January were revised lower to a 1.207 million unit pace from 1.233 million previously estimated. The inventory of unsold homes on the market rose by 4.4% to a record 548,000, representing a 6.3-month supply at the February sales pace. This is the largest month-supply since January 1996. The median sales price fell by 2.9% year-over-year to $230,400 in February. End of Story
YOY Percentage sales volume declines: SFH/Condos -24%, -50%..Daytona Beach -25%, -27%..Fort Lauderdale -9%, -44%..Fort Myers-Cape Coral +6%, -38%..Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie -21%, -48%..Fort Walton Beach -6%, +35%..Gainesville -1%, naâ¦.Jacksonville -11%, -38%..Lakeland-Winter Haven -36%, -64%..Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay -21%, -20%..Miami -47%, -50%..Naples -3%, naâ¦.Ocala -16%, +95%..Orlando -32%, -56%..Panama City -20%, +8%..Pensacola -16%, -90%..Punta Gorda -42%, -44%..Sarasota-Bradenton +11%, -35%..Tallahassee -29%, -10%..Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater -22%, -14%..West Palm Beach-Boca Raton
Certainly it might be possible we may have bouncing cats along the way...but I don't see that as of yet. Just the steady hiss of the sham bubble deflating. National Median Prices: Oct. 05..$243,900 Nov. 05..$237,300 Dec. 05..$236,800 Jan. 06..$234,200 Feb. 06..$230,400 http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060324/economy.html?.v=6 âThe number of new homes on the market increased 4.4% to a record 548,000, representing a 6.3 months supply. The monthsâ supply is the largest in a decade. Sales in January were revised lower to a 1.207 million unit pace from 1.233 million previously estimated.â âThe median sales price fell by 2.9% year-over-year to $230,400 in February. The average sales price rose 2.6% to $296,700. The sharp drop in home sales may be confirmation to some economists that the higher mortgage rates may bring an abrupt end to what they see as a bubble in housing, with prices higher than justified by fundamentals.â I like this one even better... http://www.marealtor.com/content/monthly_reports.asp âThe supply of detached single-family homes on the market rose for a twelfth consecutive month in February, climbing 40.5 percent over the past year from 25,558 homes for sale in February 2005 to 35,907 this February. Inventory, as stated in months of supply, also rose steadily from 11.1 months last February to 15.9 months of supply in February 2006. With the spring approaching listings are up from January as well, when there was 33,627 listings and 14.3 months of supply. The stateâs inventory of unsold homes rose for the 20th consecutive month.â A world of hurt going on in New England...What happened to the "housing shortage"??? What's that smell??? OWP