man, i have had a little luck shorting some of the homebuilders...but they continue to amaze me. i think the expectant bust in houseing has already been factored into the price... wait for really bad earnings to short. so far we just have speculation we need a catalyst. good luck.
There won't be a crash anywhere, but just like in San Diego, prices will drop over time. I say this believing that the Fed may be done "for now", but interest rates will undoubtedly continue higher for years to come. In which case home prices must fall, just as the increase of the last few years has been primarily speculators using cheap money.
there is definitely going to be a crash in Miami condos. check out these inventory stats: http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/Florida/Miami/ another 1000 properties on a market in a week, thats following the last 2 with the same increase, and this is supposed to be the hot selling season for them!
It has already crashed. Only people who are desperate to sell know this. Everyone else is just whistling past the graveyard. Prominent husband wife team here in Carlsbad are trying to rent a house they bought to flip in friends subdivision here. If "Mr and Ms. Real Estate" don't believe they can sell their house, why should anyone else?? They were only asking $800k John
It really does not seem to me that things have crashed in So. Ca. I still see good properties selling... but the first sign of the beginning of the downturn (perhaps) is that less than perfect properties are not selling .....
You right, crash was wrong word to use. What is preplexing about this house is it is a very nice basic 2500 -3000 or so square foot, stucco house with tile roof with a nice view looking out west. The house is newly renovated too. Painted etc. They did a ton of work instead. Carpet etc. I walk past the house most days so I have been able to keep up with what was going on with it. This house was not overpriced at around $800k, considering what some stuff is going for around here. I guess they are taking it off market to wait until market gets better. You have to wonder though, how many of these houses they own. Problem with SoCal is real estate is where a lot of people get their money. Tons of agents and mortgage brokers make $500k++ around here. I know they have spent up to the hilt too. It is hard for a person making $500k to go to $200k. I am afraid a lot of that stuff is going to happen. Uncharted territory I guess. John
So Cal might be bad, but South East Florida is so much worse. average locals there make i dont know what, but 40k i think is a lot. only people buying down there were outsiders, now they are trying to unload with absolutely no one to sell too as locals cant afford these properties at even 50% off.