Housing Rolling Along 2

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Covertibility, Jan 24, 2005.

  1. jem

    jem

    Two responses.

    First - I am not sure which claim was not supported.


    I pretty clearly stated that things slowed down in the last quarter of the year with the no buyers comment.

    As for the 41% comment. It was stated in the Wall Street Journal. WSJ called us the hottest market in the country sometime late last summer. two weeks later a fed governor came out and denounced the speculative bubble in certain parts of Florida. And all of a sudden our local press started reporting all sorts of articles to warn off buyers. Even though they had been a big cheerleader.

    Then when Bush came out with his committee to wipe out mortgage and state tax deductions a ton of houses came on the market and no buyers.

    I am just reporting right now in the last few days the potential buyers have come out again. I am your leading news source for the area. I have friends who work for the builders and I held two open houses for my residence over the weekend that saw plenty of people.

    -----

    Regarding Bolletieri/IMG athletes partying in Bradenton. I have not seen the women out partying but I am not out much myself as I have three young kids. But, I have seen ATP pros around the academy and the area. I play tennis with a guy who is an instructor at the academy.

    One of the funniest things I ever saw was a tennis match between two fromer pros kid and 12 year old russian kid. The Russian kid may have been cheating. The former pro was telling my friend his son was getting cheated. Then when nick walked over I heard his wife (former touring pro) saying stuff to Nick. I could not hear what Nick said, but at one point I heard her say, I even told him to cheat back but he will not do that.

    I was floored. Two professional athletes as parents taking 12 year old tennis so seriously that they would openly say they advised their kid to revenge cheat.

    By the way there are all sorts of rumors from tennis parents that these top players were taking growth hormone when they were young to get tall. Now when I see these 6 foot 4 sixteen year olds and I wonder.
     
    #511     Jan 6, 2006
  2. jem

    jem

    by the way I wrote that quickly. I was not implying the former pros were on Hgh. I was implying that lots of tennis parents and coaches around here have heard a lot of current pros used hgh to get bigger.
     
    #512     Jan 6, 2006
  3. First - I am not sure which claim was not supported.

    looking at tampa inventories it doesnt look like buyers are snapping up properties again. But thats Tampa again,not Bradenton.
     
    #513     Jan 6, 2006

  4. not surprised that russian kid might have "cheated", especially if hes coming from a poor family and is showing promise. but then again, who is not cheating these days.
     
    #514     Jan 6, 2006
  5. jem

    jem

    Is that an upside breakout from a cup and handle pattern in the home construction sector?
     
    #515     Jan 10, 2006
  6. #516     Jan 11, 2006
  7. jem

    jem

    Tennis must return to wooden racquets. Where talent was truly rewarded as opposed to leverage.
     
    #517     Jan 11, 2006
  8. By activity, do you mean inventory? This was posted on a real estate blog elsewhere....inventory up how many hundred of percent? OWP


    " 4:48 PM
    FLic said...

    I've been tracking housing supply in the $300-$400 range (3br/2ba) in the Sarasota/Bradenton area since July. Not inclusive of all local areas though, just the one's we are interested in, but it's interesting to see the trend. But of course this is just "normalization" returning to the market according to the local real estate fools...

    07/22/05 234
    07/26/05 258
    08/03/05 260
    08/11/05 293
    08/14/05 304
    08/21/05 333
    08/26/05 347
    09/03/05 370
    09/09/05 415
    09/15/05 435
    09/25/05 534
    09/30/05 582
    10/05/05 605
    10/09/05 617
    10/17/05 683
    10/26/05 709
    11/06/05 842
    11/12/05 850
    11/20/05 891
    11/26/05 920
    12/03/05 939
    12/08/05 949
    12/15/05 999
    01/06/06 1043
    01/10/06 1081

    5:51 PM
     
    #518     Jan 13, 2006
  9. #519     Jan 14, 2006
  10. jem

    jem

    By activity I mean, potential buyers calling up brokerages and wanting to see houses. I mean sales of new homes and customers walking into the new home models. After a quarter of nothing there is now activity in the last two weeks. Just drive by the models you will see multiple cars in front of them. .

    I mean having more people showing up at my open house last weekend than any open house I have ever held.

    I had three brokers show my house in the last two days.

    One month ago there was hardly a buyer to be found anywhere.

    Do I think this means we are going back to last spring's conditions. I doubt it, but we won't now really until people try to position the start of school again. s.

    By the way inventory has definitely gone up since last summer. There was nothing to sell buyers. A properly analysis would let you know the amount of homes for sale vs the amount of transactions. In other words how many months supply.

    In Lakewood Ranch area, which is Bradenton. Last spring we had a one month supply of inventory. Now we have about 10-12 month supply. Which is a market slightly balanced to the buyer's side. 7-9 mos supply is considered historically balanced.
     
    #520     Jan 14, 2006