For some reason I don't get the response notifications in e-mail, hmm.......anyway I am just glad we bought our house for basically what the original owner paid so we shouldn't lose any money, although there is alot of inventory in SE Denver Metro where I live, avg dom is 90 I believe. Atleast we aren't in Dallas where I believe they had negative appeciation of 1% if I am correct? Funny thing though, if you want a new loft in downtown expect to pay 500K plus for less than 2000sf, no thanks.
Sellers chop asking prices as housing market slows Cuts of up to 20% are now common as analysts see signs of a 'hard landing' By Kimberly Blanton, Globe Staff | December 9, 2005 Boston-area homeowners trying to sell their houses are sharply reducing asking prices -- in some cases, by $100,000 or more -- in response to the sudden slowdown in the real estate market. Demand for single-family homes has declined as prices have risen in recent years and interest rates have begun to climb, causing the number of properties on the market to pile up. The median price of a single-family home in Massachusetts has dropped 7 percent in the past two months, to $349,000 for sales that closed in October. But reductions in asking prices of 10 percent or 20 percent are now common in both high and moderately priced neighborhoods, according to real estate agents and listings of homes for sale. In Cambridge, price cuts averaged $300,000 in a sampling of a dozen houses listed in the $1.25 million to $4.3 million price range. In suburbs like Tewksbury and Hopkinton, homes originally listed for around $500,000 have been slashed to the low $400,000s. Asking for less: A tale of three homes http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Graphic/2005/12/09/1134130035_7694.jpg 'The evidence -- both early data and the anecdotes -- are pointing more toward a hard rather than a soft landing" in the housing market, said Nicholas Perna, an economic consultant in Ridgefield, Conn. 'Prices could come down. Could it be 10 to 15 percent? There's no way of knowing, but what we're getting is more clues that you've got a decline in prices underway. Agents said price cutting began last summer but accelerated in the past two months and is far more frenzied than in 2004, a year of record sales volume. Today, homeowners in no rush still have the option of letting their listing expire, unsold, and putting the house back on the market in the spring when brokers hope conditions will improve. But those who need to sell quickly -- couples in the midst of a divorce, employees who are relocating to another region, or owners who are purchasing another home, for example -- may have no choice but to entertain offers they would have scoffed at months or even weeks ago. 'It's unbelievable," said Polly Drinkwater, an agent with Coldwell Banker Cambridge, who has dropped the price on one of her listings $550,000, or 22 percent, since March. These 'are very large drops," she said. Last February, Gary and Susan Kazmer were confident of selling their Foxborough home for $949,900. He had landed a high-level job in Manhattan, and the couple planned to relocate their three daughters during the summer to a house they purchased in Mendham, N.J., with a bridge loan. They built the Foxborough house on a pond in 1997 and filled it with extras: two marble fireplaces and hardwood floors with dark cherry borders. 'We called it our wow house," he said. But it attracted little interest at that price, and Gil Campos of Re/Max Real Estate Center in Foxborough lowered the price to $899,000 in early August. Since then, it has been reduced four times, to $800,000. 'That's an unbelievable spiral," he said. The Kazmers' limbo ended this week, when they accepted an offer, which Campos declined to disclose. 'It never would've sold if it hadn't been reduced," he said. But, he added, 'Once you're in that price-reducing mode, all the vultures are out, the people looking for a deal. I've had the most ridiuclous offers I've ever had." Some houses are now listed below what buyers paid a few months ago for a similar house, making it very difficult for real estate agents to estimate an asking price for clients. In September, Steve Levine of Re/Max First Choice in Northborough apparently priced one client's house right, at $712,000. It sold 'within days" of putting it on the market Sept. 25, he said. But currently, two similar houses are for sale in the same area, at $689,000 and $699,000, he said, and 'those aren't moving." Moderately priced homes are feeling the brunt of the price squeeze, according to an analysis of MLS listing data by Cambridge broker Bill Wendel. Statewide, 38,418 houses had priced reductions between Jan. 1 and Nov. 24, or 22 percent more than the number of reductions during the same period in 2004. But the number of price reductions on homes between $500,000 and $1 million increased by 36 percent. One price segment that 'jumps off the page as soft," said Wendel, is the $500,000 to $600,000 price range, the fourth most active segment of the single-family housing market. It had 1,258 more markdowns, up 40 percent from last year. Coldwell Banker agent Egor Evsiouk said many househunters have walked through his client's spacious 1970s Colonial in Tewksbury, which needs 'cosmetic updating" but abuts state conservation land. Since late July, the Willants have cut the price by $100,000, or 20 percent, to $429,000, barely above the town's assessed value for the property. The house is an 'albatross around my neck," said Elsie Willant, creating so much stress she developed an inflamed sciatic nerve that has immobilized her. In the midst of separating from her husband and still grieving the death, years ago, of her oldest daughter, she is anxious to 'move on" and buy a place in Maine, closer to her second daughter. But first they must sell. Willant said they received one 'ridiculous" offer of $380,000. 'There is nothing wrong with this house," she said. Kimberly Blanton can be reached at blanton@globe.com.More on the Massachusetts housing market at www.boston.com/business/specials/realestate/ © Copyright 2005 Globe Newspaper Company. http://tinyurl.com/avcl3
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10398130/ ".......insiders at Toll sold millions of their shares of the stock but directed more than $118 million of the shareholder's money toward the repurchase of about 2.8 million shares. So the company managers think it's a good idea to use company money to buy stock that they themselves don't want. Isn't that just nifty?" http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/09/AR2005120900903.html Federal financial regulators appear to be on the verge of reining in one of the most popular mortgages in hot housing markets nationwide, loans that allow 1 percent to 2 percent payment rates leading to 'negative amortization.'" "'Is this an appropriate product to mass-market to customers who may be looking at the less than fully amortizing minimum payment as the only way to afford a large mortgage?' Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan said. His clear implication was no, a conclusion with huge potential significance for the real estate market. (If) Dugan's office..directs banks and mortgage companies to stop making negative-amortization loans or sharply cut back on them, banks nationwide could shut off the spigots for such loans." "That, in turn, would cut off a key tool being used by buyers to qualify for high-cost homes. Prices on those houses would either have to decline to more affordable levels, or sales would plummet." http://www.sfgate.com/columnists/lloyd/ "In the three years since Lori Sacco and Chris McCook put their faith in real estate, the couple have embarked on what might conservatively be called an E-ticket ride, pulling equity from appreciating properties to provide down payments for the next investment. They have bought eight vacation properties, four homes in Florida, three in California and 100 raw acres on top of a mountain in Lake County." "McCook got licensed as a contractor, Sacco as a real estate broker. Together last month, they opened a real estate brokerage. Sacco readily admits that she and McCook have made mistakes. This summer, the couple ignored their own formula and bought two high-end condos in Florida before learning how competitive the vacation rental market was there. Now, only a few months later, they are putting them on the market to reduce their debt and stress. 'We broke our own rules,' she explains. 'Vacation (rentals) are not for the faint of heart.'" "They don't have jobs, but their lives appear to be a whirlwind of work. They don't have incomes either, though they maintain middle-class lifestyles. Sacco estimates that along with McCook's mother, they've made $1.3 million since they began their buying spree, but all of this is still in equity on their properties. Their monthly reality is more sobering. They have $2.3 million in mortgage debt and negative cash flow that ranges from $5,000 to $15,000 monthly depending on the season." "So how do they pay the bills? 'We sort of count our equity loans as our income,' she says, with the slightest wince. 'If we had real jobs, we'd be fine, but we just need to get some money in. Some people call it a pyramid, but I don't like to think about it that way." http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/07/real_estate/buying_selling/small_landlord_guide/ "Signs of a slowdown in the housing market keep coming, with drops in housing starts, sales. Rental markets have soured as well. Rents in most cities have been either flat or down in 2005. In Boston, a net lost of about 180,000 jobs in the past few years drove rents down about 10 percent in 2005." "Rent declined even more in San Francisco, about 13 percent. Chicago and Houston rents are down about 3 percent. What's more, rental vacancy rates have soared, to about 10 percent, according to the latest Census Bureau data, up from about 7.5 percent 10 years ago." "Jane Garvey, a small landlord in the Chicago area, says so much emphasis has been placed on home ownership that most everyone who could afford to buy a home already has..and made it hard to find reliable, qualified renters in many locales. 'You're looking for the 'cream of the crap,' says Garvey."
Although the bubble peak may have passed, this woman is trying to cash in. She may be a bit late, not only for the housing market, but for herself as she seeks her cash cow. This may be her last gasp to market this combo package before menopause. Although she still sports long hair and a slender build, you can count on both of those things changing fast as soon as some sucker takes the package. Note the differences between her pictures on her website and the MSNBC video....OUCH...talk about false advertising (hate to see her first thing in the morning)!. Oh...the race against time....OWP http://www.housewithbride.com/ http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9996341/ House for sale, bride included Woman offers two-for-one package deal online Meet Deborah Hale, a 48-year-old woman who is selling her house near Denver, Colorado. Not a big deal, right? Wrong, for the $600,000 asking price to Mr. Right, Deborah throws in herself! A house does not make a home. Itâs the tailor-made details that made homes stand out from the others on the block: The lofted ceilings with vintage chandeliers, the creaky spiral staircase that leads to a garden roof deck, the built-in book cases that cover a wall in the living room. But one home now on the market comes with a built-in wife. Thatâs the package deal proposed by 48-year-old Deborah Hale, a woman looking for the man of her dreams. And one of her dreams is that maybe heâll buy her house from her, too. While Hale runs a jewelry business in Albuquerque. She also owns a 95-year-old house in the Washington Park section of Denver. She has put up her own Web site, housewithbride.com, to sell the house for $600,000. Countdown host Keith Olbermann sat down with the wannabe bride-to-be to discuss her special offer. To read an excerpt of their conversation, continue to the text below. To watch the video, click on the "Launch" button to the right.
here is a new stat I read about ... but do not have access to in the CA market ... or FL market but would guess that the hottest spec areas would be seeing some stats like this. now .. if people cancel ... what are the penalties and what does this do to the developers and bankers who back the building of all these condos? ( if anyone wants to see my source for this go to the " why is gold jumping thread" ) - condominium cancellation rates- -. In San Diego, cancellation rates for new condominiums rose 47% in the third quarter of the year versus the second quarter.-
I have to agree, there are WAY too many $100k+ condos already in the market down here, and they keep on building them as fast as they can...
Two of Nation's Largest Homebuilders, KB Home and Lennar, Report Strong Fourth-Quarter Profit CNBC said something about the homebuilder index being up 30% YTD.
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?BRD=2256&dept_id=457707&newsid=15751862&PAG=461&rfi=9 "Baby Boomers to the rescue has been the markets' mantra now for at least a decade. This would pretty much apply to all markets, from stock to real estate. Let's take a closer look at this supposed 'saving grace' for all things frothy and overheated, and test the validity." "It is worth noting that at the beginning of 1997, the Dow Jones Industrial average trading around 5,000, and by the beginning of 2000, it traded just shy of 12,000. So we can see here that the entire market..more than doubled in value in only three years! Sound familiar? There were many attempts to justify the run-up in prices, ranging from the completely irrational to the carefully thought out and researched theories." "'Irrational Exuberance' and blind faith lead many investors right up to the edge where a sudden and abrupt 40 percent 'crash' (Ahem... I mean 'correction') wreaked havoc on the life savings of American's in a way that we may be decades recovering from. Fast forward to the real estate boom (see 'bubble' in Webster's Dictionary) of 2004-2005. In a nearly identical mania, investors again believe that it really is supposed to happen this way. Even the 'seasoned veterans' were caught up in the mania." "The Baby Boomers are coming (again) and that will save us from ourselves. Never mind the simple reality that there are a finite number of people in this country that can afford to, or are even willing to, spend $1 million dollars on a vacation home. In fact, a recent client interview revealed that this particular client was opting to have two or three smaller condominiums around the country for the same cost of owning and maintaining a single million dollar property here in paradise." "Just as the real estate investing public attempts to embrace the 'bubble' as a normal and customary pace of growth. The new wave of Baby Boomers are now facing new dilemmas never before considered in the equation. A Pew Research Center poll indicates Baby Boomer financial pressures range from taking care of adult children to assisting with elderly parents who require support. This is not what an 'overheated' real estate market needs to hear." "Years from now, we may look back at the real estate 'bubble', I mean 'expansion', as a great source of overnight wealth for many Americans. The main concern now is whether or not these levels are sustainable. Patience plays a critical role as we watch the cycle run it's course. The Baby Boomers certainly are coming, only it remains unclear whether or not they have a plan to save us." "Manias come and manias go, but one constant remains. Time is perhaps our best ally, so settle in, sit back and watch the show knowing that market powers are constantly at work."
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/12/15/eveningnews/main1131821.shtml In last year's red-hot real estate market, homes like Letty Mallery's were selling for a million bucks, often in a day. But Letty's home has been on the market for five months and hasn't moved." "Like a lot of booming areas across the country, homes sales here have stalled in Loudoun County. 'We waited too long. We missed the crest of the bubble,' she says." "There are signs of a deflating real estate bubble everywhere, literally. On one block, there are dozens of 'For Sale' signs. For realtors, it's getting ugly. We try to do as many things as we can to sell,' says realtor Mike Wagner, but he adds 'there's a lot of competition on the market, that's for sure.'" 'We've had a lot of 'buy, buy, buy' mentality. Now we're starting to see a little bit of 'sell, sell, sell,' he says." http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/site/apps/nl/content2.asp?c=euLTJbMUKvH&b=486837&ct=1732853 "When real estate market analysts want to know what is likely to happen to home prices over the coming months, one of the first things they look at is the cancellation rate for preconstruction property deals. In San Diego, that rate has almost doubled from last year. It has also risen drastically throughout 2005." "The cancellation rates for detached properties rose to 40 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005, an increase from 22 percent in the second quarter and 33 percent in the third, (realtor) Sharon Hanley said." "Jim Abbott said a number of his clients made preconstruction deals with developers in downtown San Diego, which they are now trying to escape. He cited Bosa Development Corporation's property The Grande at Santa Fe Place as one property where roughly 50 investors are trying to sell, with very few buyers coming forward." "One of those investors is Darren Wassell, who grew up in San Diego but now lives in the Bay Area. He said he won't be re-investing in San Diego real estate any time soon. 'I'm competing against 25-30 other people trying to sell my place,' Wassell said. 'Whereas, a year ago, people were like, it doesn't matter, they just wanted to flood in and buy.'' http://today.reuters.com/news/newsA...ETS-STOCKS-HOUSING-MERRILL.xml&archived=False "Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg and quantitative strategist Richard Bernstein, said, 'From our lens, the U.S. housing market has become seriously overextended and a correction looms.' They also noted that despite the belief of many investors that the U.S. economy has a chance to accelerate meaningfully, 'the slope of the yield curve, perhaps the best economic forecaster of all, continues to flatten,' even raising the prospect for an inversion." "'Although an inverted yield curve does not always imply economic recession, it has predicted a profit recession 100 percent of the time,' the pair said. 'We think investors should be searching for the origins of the slowdown in nominal growth that is flattening the yield curve,' they added." At least one condo developer may be listening. "The 900-foot Ivana Las Vegas luxury condominium tower, originally called The Summit, is listed for sale on a real estate Web site for $49 million and has reportedly stopped selling units." http://www.insidebayarea.com/trivalleyherald/localnews/ci_3315034 Properties are not selling as quickly,' said (broker) Linette Edwards, whose territory covers the Oakland and Berkeley hills, along with Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda. We are right now in a very, very gray area, a holding time. Buyers are holding off to March. They want to see if the market is really going to dip.'' http://www.dailybulletin.com/business/ci_3313333 "As many homeowners don't want to miss what they perceive as the top of the market, housing inventories have soared. Bill Velto in Upland, said his inventory has soared 300 percent in the last 60 to 90 days. Discouraged by no offers on their Grand Terrace home after four months and three price reductions, Eileen and John Shumate have taken their home off the market. In doing so, they forfeited a deposit for a new home in Phelan." "John Karevoll and other analysts had been saying for months that the 30 percent gains were both not sustainable and could lead to dramatic real estate price corrections. Signs of cooling are a welcome sight to many."
http://piggington.com/node/166 "Church of the Soft Landing" December 15, 2005 - 9:53pm "It is often argued, usually by real estate permabulls, that there is widespread concern about a decline in home prices. This pessimism is routinely blamed for the slowdown we've seen in sales and price growth. "Ask a real estate agent today," sputters George Chamberlin in a recent North County Times rant, "and they will tell you clients want to wait until prices drop 20 percent before they buy a new house." "This is, of course, entirely untrue. The typical San Diegan thinks things may flatten out for a while, but very few people are expecting sales to decline in a significant manner. And as Mr. Chamberlin himself points out, home sales haven't slowed down all that much in the grand scheme of things. If everyone were expecting a 20% price drop, why would anyone be buying at all?" "Nope, the man on the street is feeling pretty confident, and he is not alone in his sanguinity. As today's Union-Tribune informs us, the panel of real estate analysts at USD's Outlook 2006 housing conference was nigh bursting with good cheer. Remember these choice quotes in the years ahead:" " * "We may see a decline in sales but not prices." - Louis A. Galuppo, director of USD's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate * "[T]here are no major economic triggers, such as massive job losses, to cause the housing market to crash." - Joe Anfuso, chief financial officer of Shea Homes San Diego * "We may see a blip up in foreclosures and delinquencies." - Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors * "I think we're in for a soft landing." Leslie Appleton-Young, again" "Ah, the beloved soft landing. I think I'll start capitalizing the phrase in an attempt to denote its cherished and iconic status." "Soft Landing. Yes... I like that very much indeed." "Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham recently had his research staff compile info on all the historical stock, currency, and commodity bubbles they could find. A "bubble" was defined here as a two-sigma event: an asset price that got more than two standard deviations away from its historical trend. Grantham and company identified 28 financial bubbles, of which every oneâevery single oneâsaw prices revert back to the mean. So where does San Diego fit into all this? Of course, there is more to any story than deviations from the mean, but the point here is that history is telling us something. People can make all the excuses and rationalizations they want, but the fact is that markets revert to the mean. Bubbles burst." "People continue to tell themselves (and anyone else who will listen) that San Diego real estate will be the history's first asset to rise so far, so fast, and never come back down to earth. They will eventually be relieved of this misconception. For now, though, faith in the Soft Landing holds sway."