hmm ... I just learned something tonight Manhattan NYC ... still going strong in some metrics ... according to my sources ... -the average price per square foot ... set a all-time record in the third quarter. -
YTD homebuilders are flat....home prices will end the year with double digit increases unless you live where noone wants to live......average yield on 30 fixed is 6.15%....and the big key to housing is the unemployment rate which was bumped up due to mother nature wiping out an entire city... forecasters see next year with modest increases in home prices, along the lines of 5% and a 50 bp rise in mortgage rates. Where is the crash everyone was talking about?
maybe not crash ... most likely a much lower rate than last few yrs ... likely www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05102606.htm
I'm NOT a RE bull. But interesting to see how many RE bulls are still out there.. Who knows... Depends if rates will shoot up or not.. ======================= The $25 trillion land grab Ten megapolitans are poised for a boom that, by 2030, will dwarf America's post WWII buildout. October 28, 2005: 1:00 PM EDT By Paul Kaihla and Krysten Crawford, Business 2.0 NEW YORK (Business 2.0) - There has been an impressive amount of construction in the United States over the last three centuries: All told, we've built more than 300 billion square feet of homes, offices, factories and other structures. A treasure map of opportunity But according to new studies from the Brookings Institution and Virginia Tech urban planning professor Robert Lang, we're about to pick up the pace -- it will take just 25 years to erect the next 200 billion square feet, which we'll need to accommodate 70 million more people and to replace homes and offices erased by everything from disasters like Hurricane Katrina to plain old obsolescence. If you think the real estate boom of the past decade was bounteous, peek a little further over the horizon: Researchers estimate that the massive buildout will constitute a $25 trillion development market by 2030, more than twice the size of the U.S. economy today. According to Lang, the bulk of that money will flow into 10 major metro regions that he has christened "megapolitans." Here are exclusive growth forecasts for each of these regions and -- based on interviews with dozens of regional planners, developers and investors -- identified the savviest angles to play in the near and long term.
It always looks prettiest at the top... I remember reading articles like these about the potential fiber optic build out... and that was when csco was at $60. --MIKE
Here is the link to that story by Trader99 if anyone is interested. Interesting article. http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/26/pf/megapolitan_biz20_1105/
Your wish that we are entering a "sideways" pattern is now your best hope. But sideways will not happen either (IMO), as the latest news from headlines across the country show declines ahead. http://www.boston.com/news/local/ma...es_red_hot_real_estate_market_is_cooling_off/ "It may not be a bubble bursting, but from where I sit, the air went out pretty fast," said Bill Trask of Coldwell Banker Friends & Neighbors in Standish. Each week, Trask reviews the number of homes sold and under contract with his 27 agents. The numbers he found in late September were disturbing. "I said to myself, 'We don't have enough business in October,'" recalled Trask, president of the Portland Board of Realtors. "For the first time in several years, we're not on track." http://today.reuters.com/investing/...33Z_01_N0790500_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-HOUSING.XML "A deluge of U.S. data showing an excessive supply of houses, declining demand and falling prices have many economists acknowledging a slowdown in housing has arrived." "What we are seeing is a confluence of events. There wasn't much left in terms of consumers' willingness and ability to buy houses with homes priced the way they were" http://www.boston.com/realestate/articles/2005/10/26/mass_home_prices_fall_in_september?mode=PF "The median price of a single-family house dropped for the first time in seven months as the pace of home sales weakened across Massachusetts in September, according to the monthly market report yesterday from the Massachusetts Association of Realtors." "A fall in housing prices comes at a time when real estate agents, especially in the suburbs, are increasingly reporting that clients who are reluctant to reduce their asking prices are not able to sell their homes in a softening market in which the number of houses on the market has spiked. The data tracked by the realtors association can lag the market by several months, since it includes prices only on sales that have closed, and it can take two to three months between the time a purchase-and-sale agreement is signed and the deal closes." ''The past three years have been really good for real estate," said Jim Dangelo, an agent for Century 21 Travis Realty in Billerica. ''Now we're starting to hit a low period," he said." "Pasnik acknowledged prices have been weakening for months. ''That's not news to anybody," he said. ''There's more housing inventory, and that's going to put downward pressure on prices." "Jason S. Weissman, president of Boston Realty Advisors, a residential and commercial brokerage firm, said he believes that buyers anticipating more price declines are holding off on decisions, and they are able to do so because there are so many properties on the market." ''We're not going to have a banner year," Weissman said. ''Volume will be off in 2005 and 2006 from 2004." "Listing Information Network reported this week that condo sales in downtown Boston were 3,132 during the first nine months of this year, or 12 percent below record sales during the same time last year." "The report was the first evidence that a slowing housing market was also hitting condo sales in the city, which is in the midst of a condo-building boom." "Condos ''are definitely not selling at the pace at they were, and sellers motivated to sell are definitely reducing their price," Weissman said." http://www.boston.com/realestate/articles/2005/10/22/hub_condo_market_cools_over_record_2004_pace/ ''We're seeing a slowdown across all price ranges -- I don't care whether it's a $300,000 unit or a $3 million unit," said Chris Tuite, a real estate agent for Re/Max Waterfront Realty in the North End. ''I attribute it to too many natural disasters, a quiet stock market, and people are scared about rising interest rates, even though they're still at historic lows." "Wellesley College economics professor Karl Case cited ''fundamental reasons" condo demand is dropping, including high prices that make properties less affordable, rising interest rates, and worries about the economy and value of real estate, the single largest asset for millions of Americans." http://nalert.blogspot.com/2005/10/median-home-sales-price-fell-57.html ..."the supply of homes available for sale shot up to a record 493,000 at the end of September, surpassing August's high of 478,000. At September's sales pace, that represented a 4.9 months' supply." "The median home sales price fell 5.7 percent to $215,700." "Low mortgage rates have sustained a years-long rally in the U.S. housing sector, but recent data have begun to suggest some cooling in the market. Earlier this week, a trade group said home resales came in flat in September but would have been lower if not for aggressive buying around hurricane-impacted areas." http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051026/BUSINESS/510260360/1003 "Median home prices in Brevard County dropped more than 9 percent in September, leading to speculation in the industry that the once-hot real estate market is officially cooling." "The real estate market has dropped," said Betty McCluskey, owner of McCluskey Realty Inc./GMAC Real Estate in Melbourne and Suntree. "It has switched from a seller's market to a buyer's market. And it's been very fast -- only in the last couple of months." http://business.bostonherald.com/realestateNews/view.bg?articleid=108824 "But median house and condo sale prices also fell â something not directly affected by seasonal issues." "Additionally, the number of unsold houses and condos on the market rose to 56,016 last month â apparently the highest inventory ever recorded." "John Bitner, chief economist at Eastern Bank, said the latest data very well may confirm that (the market has) passed the peak. He said that as housing booms die, prices rise year over year for a time, but fall month over month â exactly what yesterday's report showed."
NO FEAR JUST BUY... too many doom and gloomers http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051030/ap_on_bi_ge/naked_city
Just for the bears: U.S. Home Prices: Does Bust Always Follow Boom? But what do they know, we should pay attention to what Dominion Homes reports and whats going on in RE land in Southern Maine. Short and simple: RE is a function of employment. Employment has problem, then RE will be a problem.