Housing Rolling Along 2

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Covertibility, Jan 24, 2005.

  1. I am considering moving back to OC where I grew up. Heck I can get a home in Costa Mesa, nicer part, for $465 which is only a $100k more than here in Denver. Nobody I know is trying to sell right now so heck let it drop so more. A year ago that same house was about $555 on realtor.com.
     
    #1631     Jun 20, 2008
  2. UPDATE:

    Here are the PE's for those companies today. Note not that much difference from back then.

    TOL 20.11
    DHI 12.20
    LEN 15.23
    PHM 11.18

    Oops. Sorry. These are not the PE's, they're the stock price.
    :D
     
    #1632     Jun 20, 2008
  3. Yup...during the last real estate blowout (early-mid 90's) DHI traded as low as a buck and change.

    There is a reason all the owners of these companies were selling two fisted a couple of years ago. They had been there, done that before.

    OWP
     
    #1633     Jun 20, 2008
  4. The last housing bust in SoCal did not hit bottom until the trend in foreclosures reversed.

    Now be prepared to have your mind blown. With foreclosures we have about 4.5 years of inventory in the queue.

    Look at the previous foreclosure peak in this graph and then look at what happened in the first quarter of 2008. We are nowhere near a bottom.
     
    #1634     Jun 21, 2008
  5. Nice chart, it will be wild to see the other side of that wave too.

    I hear that the chart of the NOD's is even wilder.

    OWP
     
    #1635     Jun 21, 2008
  6. I cant believe that is for only ONE quarter.
    Imagine what this chart looks like if each quarter of 2008 is similar to the first. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
     
    #1636     Jun 21, 2008
  7. Countrywide Foreclosures. What's of interest in the recent spike. Welcome to the subprime crisis, part 2.

    [​IMG]
     
    #1637     Jun 22, 2008
  8. I have heard that lenders are so buried that they don't even send notices for many months to home owners that are behind. Probably thats why the Countrywide chart declined for awhile...

    There are tons of NOD's that don't have their homes even listed, some of the bloggers follow this trend...the walking dead.

    http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/06/0602-to-0606-nods-in-92078.html
    "there is at least one other distressed property in that zip code - it's been listed as a short sale, and the owners stopped making payments in March, but no NOD has been filed. Apparently, some banks are so overwhelmed, they can't even be bothered anymore to file a NOD in a timely manner. This is like an invisible avalanche barreling down the hills."


    OWP
     
    #1638     Jun 22, 2008
  9. I found this post on another site I go too. I thought it was interesting.

    John

    So I work for the enemy

    A couple quick obervations from what I'm seeing:

    1. My company will avoid selling a foreclosed home we have taken at all costs. Many times we are choosing not even to foreclose because it is a waste of money. We just sit on it and twiddle our thumbs waiting for what I don't know. So we have a ton of bad debt but it doesn't "look" that way because we are avoiding that bad debt from hitting the books. If we do actually have a foreclosure we just play games with realtors, investors and homebuyers, we take their offers, and they wait 60 days, then counter offer, then maybe look at another offer...wait another 60 days, then counter offer. We are just blowing smoke so the big hit won't go on the books yet. It seems would would rather just be ok with not accepting payments anymore than having to take a home.

    2. Another interesting observation. Do banks get any kind of federal money or assitance if they loaned $$ to people who are considered in "disaster areas"? The reason I ask is my company has had a bunch of loans where people aren't paying, and when I say not paying I mean not 1 cent in 15 months on 500k mortgages and we have done NOTHING. Just recently, some of these accounts have been placed under a "disaster relief" program due to the wild fires raging here in California. The catch is, when I am reviewing these accounts none of the addresses are even close to being in a fire areas. Yes, they may be in the same COUNTY where a fire is currently burning .....but 60 miles from actual flames. So now these loans maybe can be put back on the books as up to date because they are in a 'disater relief loans' and not "bad debt" anymore. Boy the banks never seem to halt with the tricks up their sleeves. I was wondering if anybody else has seen this.

    FYI the property locations are in Salinas, Seaside, Gonzales, Greenfield, Soledad, and King City. The fire is burning in Big Sur! Same county but no fire risk.
     
    #1639     Jul 15, 2008
  10. jasonjm

    jasonjm

    hehehe

    that looks like al gores chart
     
    #1640     Jul 15, 2008