Heebner was on CNBC today during the Ron Insana time slot and he was buying energy. He made a pretty good case for high oil for a good period of time. He also didn't call this a housing bubble. He did say the high end market was at risk to speculation. He was buying REITS but seemed to be a little uneasy to sell those homebuilders.
Bubble may just be bogus http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...ive/2005/07/10/BUG8JDLA661.DTL&type=printable
The expections for their next quarters are excellent as the forward PEs are 5points lower than their current ones... but... Toll Brothers, Inc. Insider Transactions, Institutional Holdings, Short Interest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Insider Information Effective Date: 08-Jul-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buy Transactions 0 Sell Transactions 30 Net Trades -30 Shares Purchased 0.00 mil Shares Sold 3.30 mil Net Shares Bought -3.30 mil KB Home Insider Transactions, Institutional Holdings, Short Interest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Insider Information Effective Date: 08-Jul-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buy Transactions 3 Sell Transactions 11 Net Trades -8 Shares Purchased 0.01 mil Shares Sold 0.26 mil Net Shares Bought -0.25 mil
Neat read Onewaypockets and; remember Mr Heebners name because he has an excellant %% track record over the many years. a]Think he is right again; ''probably didnt time it right'' b]He also has a interesting problem, like many mutual funds do; has to sell going up, buy going down; would make ttoo many waves /slippage if he didnt. c] However with all due respect to Money magazine, not all who buy high, sell higher are dumb money -William O'Neil probably knows more about profitable trading/research than all of us . c33.3] And not everyone who trades smaller or earlier on downtrends/corrections are dumb money.Chicago researcher George Seaman & Samson Coslow 1933 trading law was somethink like trade 1/3 smaller in corrections in uptrends. Would also figure Samson Coslow wants you use discretion; and not try to chop a share into 1/3.
Its quite amusing to read this thread from the start. Merill raises the roof on homebuilders. And to think someone early on declared that the 1st Q was the last quarter of outperformance. Now children, lets all point and laugh. Its a beauty:
Existing Home Sales Set Record in June Existing Home Sales Set Record in June; Home Prices Climb at Fastest Pace in Nearly 25 Years ----------- Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
Found this little gem in this article: Speed bump "On the short end the ARMs race is cooling off. In July, adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for the smallest share of mortgage applications for any month since March 2004. This is because short-term rates are so close to long-term rates that people can opt for the security of a fixed rate without paying that much more." ---------- Someone get the Waaaambulance for the "Housing is crashing" people hoping ARM's bring everything down.
builders are not exactly in the existing home sales market. lets see what the new home sales look like tomorrow, i think they look like s.. and continue gettin worse from now on. looking at ctx and ryl and even joe today, the days of beating by 10% are long gone. the outperformance has topped out in the second quarter.