Housing Rolling Along 2

Wow, you must be rich then. We all envy you.

RoughTrader

 

You probably did not get my original point. That's ok.

 

Actually, I did. No one gives a rat's ass what kind of house you own nor the equity you have in it. There is no need to brag about it either, as you don't even own it free and clear.

It's also amusing that you should conjecture about my own housing situation, seeing as you know nothing of me nor of my personal finances. The only thing it does is hint at your level of maturity, which does not appear to be that high.

My original post only suggests that you sound bitter. The posters on this forum are only interested in discussing the future possibilities of real estate in the US. They are not necessarily bitter because they might have missed the real estate boom of the past several years. Yet another assumption you make that is most probably quite incorrect.

Grow up, "rich man".

RoughTrader

 

Well, I hunted around to answer my own question and found this link:

http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/27/news/economy/home_sales/index.htm

It gives an idea of what a proper backlog is. It referred to a 4.3 month backlog as low. Isn't the nation at about a 6 month backlog? I think it still drives home the point I was trying to make above.

SM

 

Tanks for the advice rough, I'll take it under consideration.

 

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/07/23/bloomberg/bxhome.php

“Bonds of U.S. home builders, profitable through April, have turned into the biggest losers this year in the market for debt with ratings below-investment grade. Debt sold by D.R. Horton, KB Home and other construction companies have fallen an average 3 percent since May 1, according to Merrill Lynch. That is the worst performance of 37 industries tracked by the investment bank.”

“‘You have to ask yourself if the worst is over or yet to come,’ said Timothy Compan, head of corporate bond strategy at Allegiant Asset Management.”

“D.R. Horton said last week that it would sell 50,000 houses in the year that ends Sept. 30, below the 58,000 estimate it gave on April 18. ‘Every downturn is longer and deeper than people expect,’ Horton’s CEO, Donald Tomnitz, said Thursday after the company reported the first quarterly loss in its 28-year history. ‘We are assuming the worst.’”

 

===============

One way;
Like the way RE is regional, our area has cooled down a bit;
first time in a long time RE looks interesting.

90 miles away, an acquaintance put in an offer in a home,$172k, dont know the square footage, probably about average;
some one else actually offered over asking price [ nice low tax suburb area]. Much hotter there.

 

“Centex Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. home builder, on Monday said its net profit fell 31 percent and orders were off 21 percent, prompting the company to slash its forecast in another sign of the eroding U.S. housing market. ‘Centex is another confirming data point that the trends directionally are continuing to get worse,’ analyst Rick Murray said.”

“Centex followed in step with U.S. home builders who have reported falling orders and have slashed their forecasts, bemoaning the flood of unsold homes on the market, especially from speculators dumping their investments that no longer rapidly increase in value.”

“Closings fell 11 percent in the once-sizzling Southeast, where new orders tumbled 43 percent. With the order fall-off, Centex walked away from options contracts for land, writing off $36 million of options deposits.”

 

I laughed when I saw the gas bag economist for the NAR on TV tonight. The same guy that said trends were strong and prices would not decrease. Listening to him backpeddle was great.

My cousin has been looking for a house as they sold their current home. They have looked at houses in the OC area of CA and primarily listings on the market more than 120 days. They have made some offers in the 85-90% of asking and the counters are back at full price. One home has fallen out of escrow twice and has been vacant for 9 months. He just laughs and moves on. The sellers psychology is the market is still similar to last year and it's not. The old "my neighbor sold their place for 800 last year, I should get 825-850 for mine this year". Reality they are lucky to get 750.

 

Since last year interest rates are up quite a bit, thus increased payments. If your cousin paid all the $$$, he would be committed for a much bigger monthly payment than people that bought last year.

In O.C. where sales volume is down like 30-40%, and prices action is showing like 40%+ of the houses are showing "reduced", that just does not make sense. If the market continues to behave like it has for the last six months, bigger price reductions are coming. We are in the hottest season for home selling right now, once school starts the market is always toast.

Has your cousin considered leasing a nice place? He could squirrel away the $$$ in a variety of insured accounts without too much work. He could wait about two years and give the market a look over once again. OWP