Housing - no way near a bottom

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Cutten, Aug 2, 2007.

  1. Cutten


    I am going to make a rather outrageous prediction. IMO, the Miami condo market is going to see some units fall 70% from peak prices. Before this is all over, I fully expect to see former $1 million condos sell for $300k.

    Mark my words - this is going to be the biggest real estate bust since the Great Depression.
    #71     Sep 3, 2007
  2. Mr Pain

    Mr Pain

    I went and looked at a house going up for auction in Hyannis Mass today. It’s a nice neighborhood, probably 35% summer, 2nd homes, 65% year round. I drove around the 60 or so houses in the neighborhood and saw that about 15% or so were for sale. I also saw that three were already completely vacant and abandoned and two of those were padlocked. The house I was looking at goes up in a week. It was purchased in 1986 so they must have used it as a bank and got overdrawn. I bought 5 houses and some commercial property at auctions in 94 and 95. I have been waiting for this bust. I think we are about a year from the pit and 3 years from a rise. Any thoughts on Mass real estate from anyone else?
    #72     Sep 3, 2007
  3. tortoise


    I follow Greater Boston and Los Angeles real estate closely. I think your analysis essentially correct, but your timetable a mite optimistic. My hunch is that we have a fair amount of mean regression in store before a genuine bottom can be projected in either place...
    #73     Sep 3, 2007
  4. tortoise


    We may see something like this in Los Angeles as well -- and I'm talking here about the plummy Westside, including Brentwood, Santa Monica, and Pacific Palisades...
    #74     Sep 3, 2007
  5. the 11 points that opened this thread are 100 percent correct

    well done g
    #75     Dec 4, 2007
  6. Agreed. And in this situation, it dosen't matter whether Boston, San Fran, or even Detroit. It's all being affected by something bigger.:cool:
    #76     Dec 4, 2007
  7. ElCubano


    we are still not at the point of max pain...but i can hear the cries from yonder....and I still see cranes for miles...amazing..but you may be 100% correct; at least in this hood..its going to be twice as hard and violent as it was on the way up...where people just couldn't believe it..houses going for 230k in october/02 and then flipped at 315k in november/02 and so on and so forth...peace
    #77     Dec 4, 2007
  8. My neighbor is a real estate agent in Florida. She says starting a few days ago her phone is ringing and clients are asking to see properties. Someone made an offer on one condo and she is closing on another condo. It looks to me like some people from up North are visiting Florida, looking at, and buying properties. My neighbor says suddenly she is working hard.
    #78     Dec 11, 2007
  9. i am not surprised at all. Although i left FL 4 months ago, i know for a fact that new construction in palm beach county has come to a dead stop. projects got cancelled left and right. there is new inventory overhang but prices have come down big time and the good new stuff is nearly gone. of course there will always be existing old housing for sale, but that is not nearly as attractive as nobody wants to spend 30k for good morning just to put in impact resistant windows, etc...also, isnt the tax cut vote supposed to take place in jan 08 as well?

    i hear miami is still going up, but thats another story.
    #79     Dec 13, 2007
  10. to cutten ...well said ...you are right ...minimum 2 to 4 yrs
    #80     Mar 5, 2008