Housing - no way near a bottom

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Cutten, Aug 2, 2007.

  1. yes in terms of desirable properties im calling a bottom at or around -10% from here. near ghettos pos communities and old construction wil continue to get hit further for sure...
    #31     Aug 3, 2007
  2. so in a sense you agree with me, since prices are already down about 35% now.
    #32     Aug 3, 2007
  3. what's different this time is mortgage rates are rising as the housing market goes bust.....

    Wells Fargo raised their 30 year fixed by 1% to 8% today........

    message: we really dont want to lend you money
    #33     Aug 3, 2007
  4. You, Cohiba :p and myself (along with zillions of pundits) are avidly following SoFla real estate.

    Like both of you I'm bullish on Florida for a variety of reasons. However I strongly believe SoFla's price decline will be the same fractal as 1989-1992 Los Angeles.

    The factors: One of my cornerstone trading philosophies is the rule "single prints on the way up are single prints on the way down." From 2002-2005 things down here were one huge spike. That portion of the rally will for sure fill in and you correctly note much of it has.

    Availability of credit: Granted SoFla attracts an older, higher net worth homeowner than other cities. Just the same the national tightening of lending standards is death for the industry. Don't underestimate the news of the past month. The mortgage industry is in crisis. My guess is the average home in Florida has lost 10-15% in the past thirty days!

    Taxes and insurance: Obviously these are acute problems in Florida. Anything that impacts the cost of ownership is a negative. Wilma, soaring tax assessed values along with higher borrowing costs? Fugedabowit.

    Up north: Do you think those folks up in L.I., Jersey and Boston are having an easy time either? Many of those 6x jumps in Florida were predicated by the sale of homes in the even more expensive North East. The buyers up there? A lot of mortgage brokers, real estate agents, MBS traders and kitchen installers. Adios. (no pun intended)

    I will say: Any deep correction here is to be bought with both hands. This will always be one of the best places on earth to be. The market knows that.
    #34     Aug 3, 2007
  5. trkarl


    I live here in Cape Coral, Fl in the NW section. If you think the stock market is crashing you ought to see the prices of houses around here.

    A neighbor across the street from me recently dumped a 3/2 with pool on a freshwater canal for 205,000. It was appraised at 380K in 2005. Last year houses with no pool landlocked were going for between 270 to 325 or so.

    A house a few blocks from me on a freshwater canal 3/2 pool 1600sq ft has been for sale since the beginning of the year. The owner lost his job working for a construction co. and now wants to move. Bear in mind this home would have sold easily for 350K in '05. I've watched him drop the price from 289 all the ways to 225K asking price right now and still no takers.

    The lots next to and behind my house (80 x 125) last sold in 05 for 93K and 85K. In 2003 you could find lots like these all day long for about 2500.00. Now the one behind us has an empty house on it and the one next to me, which was started in Jan, has a house with just the outside walls up. Trusses have been laying next to it for 4 months.

    The people down the street bought their house in 06. 2 months ago they told my wife they could no longer afford the payments and were leaving. That they did, just walked out.

    It's unbelievable seeing all the empty houses and partially built ones around here with no work going on with them for months.

    One of my customers told me he is trying to unload 6 condos he bought and they have been on the market for 2 yrs. I told him that real estate is not like a stock. You can't press the sell button and get out.

    We bought our house in 93 and paid it off in 2001 so I really don't care what the prices do around here. I just know it has gotten a lot quieter around here lately.
    #35     Aug 3, 2007
  6. What percent of homeowners are in the same positions as you, do you think?
    5, 10%??

    Prices are still steep here in Socal...but the deflationary psychology is seeping it...

    I'd say 90% of home'owners' in LA county are still paying off huge mortgages...maybe less, i dunno..
    #36     Aug 3, 2007
  7. mortgage rates are not rising... they are going down
    30 yr fixed at 6.25% apr with no points anywhere in the country and thats only going down with whats happening with yields and potential rate cute end of the year.
    #37     Aug 3, 2007
  8. Mortgage rates went up over 1% at some institutions just last night.

    I hate CNBC, but they did a pretty good bit about it today.

    #38     Aug 3, 2007
  9. #39     Aug 3, 2007
  10. Shouldn't you be downloading pictures of David Beckham, fruitcake? :D
    #40     Aug 3, 2007