Housing market bottom???

Discussion in 'Trading' started by S2007S, Jul 11, 2008.

  1. S2007S


    I thought a bottom would be near by 2012-2013, after reading about FNM and FRE 2018 is the earliest. After todays news on FNM and FRE along with foreclosures nearing 5 million and plenty of ARMS yet to reset I now think that the housing market may not turn around for at least a decade or more. Housing prices could easily fall another 25% over the next 1-2 years, it will probably be 2018-2020 before housing prices start a new uptrend. A very long time.
  2. housing is not like stocks where you press a sell button on your computer and can achieve a capitualtion sell off. it takes alot of time for housing to bottom and even longer for it to turn around.
  3. bighog

    bighog Guest

    Right. It will take a LONGGGG time for the system to get refinanced with credit for the little guy.

    Welcome back to a world where RISK will stay in your own backyard and not being able to "IMAGINE" you have shifted the risk off to a greater fool in another neighborhood.
  4. Hate to point it out, but all the honest US taxpayers who are now wearing this disaster through no direct fault of their own, are "the greater fools in another neighborhood"

  5. the fed is to blame because they held down interest rates for too long. did greenspan think we were a japanese economy! also,you had tons of predetory lending and i know a guy in the business. he used to tell me all the time that they took advantage of naive people and i believe that to be true,not making excuses for anyone but many people were taken advantage of. now that the economy is in a tailspin,you have job losses so those that truely could afford their mortgage when they first got it are being forced out of their homes because of a job loss. its going to compound and going to get even uglier,watch and see. very sad.
  6. When this mess finally clears we'll probably have RESPONSIBLE lending and mortgage underwriting, like...

    1. Income qualification and verification with a maximum payment-to-income requirement.

    2. A down payment so the borrower has a financial stake in the house.. and if it's not large enough to make a prudent loan, PMI will be required.

    3. Lenders will not be allowed to "securitize" packages of loans until they've aged 3-5 years... so that lenders have a financial stake in the quality of underwriting...

    Are not these prudent concepts when the lender grants 5:1 or greater leverage?

    Financial Responsibility.... now THERE'S a concept!

    Wait... didn't we have that before? Why did that change? Who promoted the change?