There are about 1.4 million in Nola area, which as you remember is fairly compact. You have to throw in business that had mortages on them. John http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Orleans
'Collective Amnesia' And Real Estate Cycles http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/15/garden/15turf.html The New York Times looks at past booms and busts. "In markets where house prices have climbed the most, the boom of the last decade has created a lot of wealth, and with it a sense of collective amnesia. It afflicts not only those who bought in recent years and have never known anything but price increases, but also those who have been burned before." "'Why do people go back to Vegas?' asked Donna Olshan, a broker in Manhattan. 'They love to gamble. And people love real estate. They think that it isn't going to happen again and they go back in it.'" "Even as homeowners in several markets are trying to interpret mixed signals about whether prices and sales are peaking, the willful embrace of real estate persists as buyers overlook steep drops in prices in the early 1990's, by as much as 22 percent in Los Angeles and nearly 47 percent in Manhattan." "In some respects, it is not hard to understand why even those who lost money have largely expunged their memories of past stumbles: many have since recovered. But back then, the downturn was severe. More than half of the people who bought co-ops and condos in Manhattan in 1986 or later and sold between 1990 and 1995 received less than what they paid for them, said Jonathan Miller, a real estate appraiser." "Sellers in some areas of California felt similar pain. In 1994, when Ralph Houghton, a mortgage broker, took a new job near Denver, he and his wife tried to sell the three-bedroom house they had built in Running Springs, Calif.. With no offers, they almost fell behind on their mortgage payments. After a year of letting the house stand vacant, Mr. Houghton cut his losses and transferred the house's deed to one of his wife's colleagues, who took over the mortgage payments." "Economists are divided as to whether prices are poised to slide again. Inventories of homes for sale are building in places like San Diego, and last month, Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, said that 'home price increases will slow and prices could even decrease.'" "For anxious homeowners wondering just how bad it could get if the bubble bursts this time, the lessons of the not-so-distant past can provide both caution and comfort." "Much like in the last five years, homebuyers in the latter half of the 1980's got drunk on real estate. Bidding wars were common, and people rushed to close deals, convinced that prices were inexorably rising. But around 1990, as the defense industry contracted in Southern California and a recession hit the Northeast, real estate prices in those places started to tumble." "Homeowners who had been counting on appreciation to finance college educations or retirement saw their nest eggs wiped out. Desperate sellers offered to pay real estate agents commissions of 8 or even 10 percent. The proportion of mortgages in foreclosure more than doubled between 1990 and 1992 in California, Massachusetts and New York." "'I couldn't sell anything to save my life,' said Deanna Kory, a broker in Manhattan, who said she went six months in 1990 without selling a single apartment. Some sellers simply pulled their homes off the market, but those who needed to divest because of a job relocation, a divorce or a new child often took a hit. In California, 26 percent of all homes sold between 1990 and 1995 went for less than the owners had originally paid." "In Manhattan, David Dreyfuss got caught in the real estate downdraft when he and his wife, Lauren, tried to sell the one-bedroom prewar co-op that Mr. Dreyfuss had bought on East 57th Street for $210,000 in 1985. Expecting their first child in 1990, the couple put the apartment on the market for $300,000, but were offered nothing close to that price." "The apartment sat on the market for more than a year. Mr. Dreyfuss recalled how difficult it was to keep the place in 'showroom condition' with a small baby. It finally sold, in 1991, for $160,000. 'It was a vivid lesson of the cyclicality of the market,' Mr. Dreyfuss said." "The family moved to Rowayton, Conn., where they rented for a year and a half before buying a four-bedroom saltbox house in 1994. The cycle started to move in their favor when, three years later, they sold it for a hefty profit and upgraded to a four-bedroom house in Westport. Today, Mr. Dreyfuss said, the house is worth 50 percent more than they have invested in it." "But his losses in 1991 have given him pause. Recently retired, Mr. Dreyfuss, 51, said he had considered investing in houses for empty nesters. But he has decided against it. 'I think a couple of years from now we'll see that right about now is the top of the market,' he said." "Certainly, some homeowners lost money only on paper because they never sold when prices were low. 'Some of the funny money went away for a while,' said Karl E. Case, an economist at Wellesley College.The housing bust was a godsend for some people, of course. In the late 1980's, Janice Brand was renting an apartment in the Beacon Hill neighborhood of Boston. 'I thought I was completely priced out of the market,' she said." "But in 1993, as prices fell, she found a two-bedroom apartment in the Charlestown neighborhood for less than $200,000. Low-income buyers were also able to enter the market. Thomas Callahan, executive director of the Massachusetts Affordable Housing Alliance, said that when prices cooled between 1991 and 1996 in the Boston area, many people bought their first houses."
<center><img src="http://home.discovery.com/tuneins/gallery/snapshot/flipthathouse_tunein.jpg"></img> </center> This is without a doubt one of the most obnoxious ideas for one of the most obnoxious shows with the most obnoxious people I've seen. Major league <i>white trash</i> alert. Now wonder people think Americans are morons, watching shit like this. [edit] ok, it had a pretty good ending. capitalsim wins again.
Houses keep piling up here in Carlsbad with sale sales. Many "Reduced" signes out now. A lot of real estate agents starting to sweat as they whistle past the grave yard. John
as I see it ... not only will the newcomers to the condo flipper game get knocked out ... but the newcomers to the real estate agent game will be pounding the streets looking for work won't the sub- prime lenders get hit too ? and who will pay for all those unfinished / unsold condos ? :eek:
they just had a story on our local news about real estate agents. it seems we have 672 real estate agents in a city of 150k. that seems like way too many to me. many have started in the last few years and many barely make a living.
Those stats remind me of the massive influx of daytraders into the market in late '99 and early 2000.
I really dont know what will happen but I have liquidated most - but not all - of my southern california real estate holdings. I kept a couple of good properties but I liquidated those that had the largest gains and booked them. Now I might be completely wrong - who knows what will really happen in the property markets - but at least I booked some hefty gains. Lets face it calling exact tops or bottoms in anything really cant be done but when I start feeling uncomfortable about not taking a gain or booking a loss I am usually experience that feeling for a reason......
The MLS in which my dad is a realtor (30+ yrs experience) has 25% more listings than normal. This is an Ohio suburban/rural market. Gas prices are starting to impact the market as there is a significant percentage of commuters to the larger cities in NE Ohio. Money is still easy however underwriters seem to have new requirements on many deals. For example, assessing the appraisal is a new wrinkle to this area, it may be common in the boom cities but not here.
Me at a BIG discount hopefully. The new Trump tower slated for completion in late 2007 on the Riverwalk in Metro Chicago would be nice.