housing crash

Discussion in 'Economics' started by silk, Dec 30, 2004.

  1. Developer plans world's tallest condo -- 110 stories -- in Miami
    Sun-Sentinel

    May 5, 2005, 7:54 AM EDT

    MIAMI -- It's only on the drawing boards, but a developer is proposing to build the world's tallest condominium tower in downtown Miami.

    Leon Cohen bought the property Monday for $31.7 million and is preparing to submit plans for a 110-story tower that would be 1,200 feet tall. A companion tower of the same height would be a combination hotel-apartment building.

    But it may not be easy to get approval for his Empire World Towers. The Federal Aviation Administration limits the height of downtown buildings because of overflights from Miami International Airport jets.

    Developer Pedro Martin, who plans to build two nearby condo towers, said his building heights were limited to 649 feet.

    The proposal by Cohen's Maclee Development would include 1,000 condo units and 500 apartments and hotel rooms. The project also would be the tallest concrete structure in the world.

    ``This is due to the hurricane weather in South Florida,'' Cohen said Wednesday.

    The world's tallest residential building, the 21st Century Tower, stands 883 feet tall in Dubai. Florida's tallest high rise is the 789-foot Four Seasons Hotel & Tower in downtown Miami.
     
    #421     May 5, 2005
  2. more easy targets for prophet osama
     
    #423     May 7, 2005
  3. How Much Real Estate $1 Million Buys
    Forbes.com
    By Sara Clemence

    Time was (and not so long ago), that seven figures could buy you something really special. A penthouse with amazing views. A stunning Hamptons home. A really, really great place in California. On the beach.

    But in nearly every corner of the U.S., the days of million-dollar mansions are, sadly, over. Welcome to an era of million-dollar bungalows, garden apartments and two-bedroom condos (in need of renovation).

    However, most Americans still consider $1 million a lot of money, no matter what their real estate agents tell them--and rightly so. The problem is that in certain markets, there seems to be a complete disconnect between property value and the buying power of a dollar. In Manhattan, for example, one million bucks buys a two-bedroom condo--and usually not in a great part of town or with oodles of compensating charm. In the Hamptons, it will buy a modest A-frame unfashionably deep in the woods.

    Fortunately, not everyone has to pay such crazy prices or live in such overpriced places. There are still many desirable markets around the U.S. where a million still goes a long way. In Las Vegas, for example, thanks to a booming housing market and low interest rates, the market continues to offer good value for the money, in spite of rising prices, as do Raleigh, N.C. and Albuquerque, N.M.

    What happened to the power of a million? From 1999 to 2004, U.S. home prices increased by a whopping 48%, according to the U.S. Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. In states such as California (up nearly 100%), New York (an increase of about 68%) and even Maine (63%), costs have risen even more dramatically.

    "In California, a million-dollar home is no longer a big deal," says John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, Calif. "In places like Palo Alto, that'll buy you a simple 2,000-square-foot home that's 40 years old. It's pretty crazy."

    In Aspen, Colo., according to Gary Feldman, a broker for Coates Reid Waldron, a million will get you a two-bedroom condo, if you're lucky. "Aspen has limited real estate that's available, and our political climate since the mid-1970s has been severe anti-growth," he says. "It's turned Aspen real estate into a limited commodity chased by the world's wealthiest people."

    New York is more expensive than ever--the average Manhattan sales price passed the $1.2 million mark in the first quarter of 2005. Most new buyers are probably scratching their heads wondering what they spent their money on. "A million dollars, these days that's a two-bedroom," says Richard Hamilton, a real estate agent at Halstead. "There are one-bedrooms going for that much. And the days of studios under $400,000 are rapidly disappearing."

    You can find apartments in emerging areas, such as Harlem or Clinton in Manhattan, or in Brooklyn and Queens, though prices have shot up there, too. "Forget SoHo," says Hamilton. "Forget the Upper East Side." And forget Tribeca, which recently earned the distinction of having the highest median home sale price in all of New York City, according to the Most Expensive ZIP Codes 2005.

    Surrounding suburbs and vacation areas haven't been immune to the rapid price increases. The assistant to a man from London telephoned Corcoran broker Diane Saatchi in the Hamptons, to say that the man was looking to spend $3 million on a house. "What month do you want?" joked Saatchi, who is currently listing a summer rental that comes close to $1 million.

    In the Hamptons, a million can get a pre-owned house with a pool, but it will not be within walking distance of the water or villages, she says. You could opt for a better property, but you'll have to tear down the house that sits on it.

    There are places where a million dollars buys a very nice piece of property. Don't expect to be living in Kansas City's equivalent of Mar-a-Lago. But you can have several bedrooms, marble baths and some lovely high-end finishes.

    "You can get a beautiful property in this area for $1 million," says Georgia Murray, a broker for Smythe, Cramer near Cleveland. For a million dollars in posh Shaker Heights, where properties can sell for as much as $2.5 million, buyers here expect a house that has been maintained and updated, in the 5,000-square-foot range.

    These days, a lot of it comes down to lowering your expectations of what a million can buy. "I think a lot of people are settling," says Neil Garfinkel, a real estate lawyer with Abrams Garfinkel Margolis Bergson in New York and California. "Whereas eight to ten years ago, they didn't have to settle."

    You still don't have to--if you know where to look. To find out where you can get the most and least bang for your million bucks, click on the links below.
     
    #424     May 7, 2005
  4. http://thehousingbubble.blogspot.com/2005/05/tracking-down-reality-in-la.html#comments


    "I'm leaving LA.

    I'm 33 years old. We have a family income of 100k, minus @15,000/year in student loan payments, so effectively 70-80k. Two young children, ages 2 and 5 months. My wife stays home with the kids, we don't want her to have to go back to work just so that we can afford a house.

    We live in a 1 BR apartment in Alhambra. Obviously, 1BR is much too small w/2 adults and 2 kids (both cribs are in our bedroom). Carpeting is 30 years old, place is falling apart, neighbors are nice people, retirees, postal workers, etc. But it's cheap -- $670 per month. Would like to get a bigger apartment but that would cut into our house savings so we stay.

    Last year we saved $25,000 of my salary. (@10k was put into in 401k). Total savings for downpayment equal @25k. No help from family, they aren't in a position to do that; we saved it all ourselves. No credit card debt, $800/month in car payments, both cars will be paid off late next year.

    Alhambra/San Gabriel/Monterey Park/Montebello area is a middle-class part of LA in every sense of the word. Not "middle class" in the well-educated urban professional sense of the word, truly middle class. SAT scores in 50th percentile, median family incomes in 50th percentile, etc., etc. A few rich Asian immigrants but most really aren't as wealthy as they appear to be, just hardworking conspicuous consumers.

    Currently, 750 sq ft 2br/1ba 50 year-old starter tract home in Alhambra is $450k. These homes are shitholes. Neighbors are inches away, house is in disrepair, etc., etc. The classic middle class home -- 2 stories, backyard big enough for a volleyball net and a BBQ, 3 br/2ba, 1800-2000 sq ft, 2 car attached garage -- is $675 - $800k. Condos are around 300 for 2br/2ba, go up to about 500 for 3br/2ba. Most condos are in decrepit condition, the new ones are 500k.

    Maximum 30-yr conventional mortgage I qualify for is $166k per Washington Mutual web site. With "creative financing" the sky is the limit, of course, but that is suicidal in this environment and I am a conventional guy in any case.

    It is frustrating as hell.

    But in a way, I am glad to be in this position. Becuase it has forced me to think carefully about where life is going.

    We have a friend in Plano, TX, a suburb of Dallas. There, a five year old, 2800 sq ft, 4br/3ba McMansion with a HUGE backyard is $200k. A 3br/1ba ranch house can be had for $80k (fixer-upper) to $125k (new). Go to Realtor.com and do a search for between $150-250k and see for yourself.

    Of course, Dallas isn't Los Angeles, but it isn't Peoria, either. I like living in a sophisticated city like LA and understand that smaller towns aren't quite the same. But Dallas? It's a major city with all of the big-city amenities. Not LA but close enough. And the salaries are comparable there, at least in my line of work.

    Other cities are equally affordable.
    Last November I was in Columbus, Ohio. In the Columbus suburbs the classic middle-class 3br/2ba two-story home is around $140k.

    Right now, in Plano, I can get the house of my DREAMS for $200k. Not a starter home, not an okay home, but the house I've always wanted. A McMansion with lots of luxury amenities, marble countertops, study, etc., etc. The American dream.

    Now back to LA. Suppose prices fall by 50% over the next three years. Then the stereotypical middle-class home -- not the house of my dreams, just a cookie-cutter middle class home -- would cost "only" $355 to $400k. The house of your dreams would be $600k after a 50% decline. That means a monthly debt service/taxes/reserve for repairs of $2500 - $4000 per month. AFTER the crash. For 30 years. Then you have to eat, save for your childrens' college, retirement, purchase things like clothing, cars, insurance, etc. -- it's just not worth it. And if you want to get out of a middle class burg like Alhambra and live in a NICE neighborhood -- the West Side, the beach communities, etc., etc. -- it'll cost you much, much more.

    I love Los Angeles. I am not a native but consider it my home. I don't want to leave. But I'm probably leaving just as soon as we can.

    To me, Texas is a chance to have a real future. It's a chance to buy a decent home without shackling myself to a lifetime of debt and stress. I'm sure it will have its drawbacks -- every place does -- but the prices don't lie.

    Even if prices decline by 50% here, LA will still be way too expensive. It just isn't worth it, and I want out."
     
    #425     May 9, 2005
  5. stevempaq

    stevempaq

    I feel for you onewaypockests. Im in the housing business here in LA. While the current market is great for me its terrible for the buyer. I wouldn't expect the current prices to drop anytime soon, although low interest rates have helped fuel the price rise there only a part of the reason.

    My construction company has seen a 20 to 35% rise in materials costs over the last one and a half alone. Then on top of that in states like cali dealing with the INSANE building codes and envirmental wackos just adds more to the costs and time. But the major killer is that in cali there is a demand for about 20 to 30,000 more new homes then the state is issuing permits for. Nationally the last numbers I saw was around 300,000 new home demand deficient. Wish i could remember the source.
     
    #426     May 9, 2005
  6. McCloud

    McCloud

    According to a report just released by California Association of Realtors, the median home price in the Southern CA for the first quarter of 2005 was $477,660, while a median household income was $52,050. That’s less than half what it would take to afford a median-priced home, for which monthly payments, taxes and insurance would total about $2,780 ...
     
    #427     May 10, 2005
  7. stevempaq

    stevempaq

    You would look at those numbers and think that it would be a pain to find buyers that could afford the houses. But the houses I have been selling are in the 800k to 1.2mil range are sold before the house is even built and if not within a week of them being listed.

    You can still find decent homes in so cali for a semi fair price (for cali standards) if your willing to live in the outer areas.
     
    #428     May 10, 2005
  8. high desert? low desert? brawley, calexico? ive heard stories that imperial county is booming and that people are commuting into san diego from calexico. people are also commuting into san diego from the areas such as hemet & san jacinto.

    they dont ring a bell at the top of the stock market or the real estate market. the psychology is the same, comfort in the herd mentality. the top rated stocks in March 2000 are now like 90% off of their highs? i dont know when, i dont know why, but i fairly certain that it will end badly. i will allow that this time differs from late-1980's in that we dont have a supply overhang.

    good luck with your development biz.
     
    #429     May 10, 2005
  9. stevempaq

    stevempaq


    This market will end badly at some point I agree. I can only speak for my business in that I could suffer a 50 to 60% market dump and id still be profitable on my current 2 projects.
     
    #430     May 10, 2005