housing crash

Discussion in 'Economics' started by silk, Dec 30, 2004.

  1. Too bad you didn't act on William Nickerson's advice. Chances are you would be worth one helluva lot more today than you are!:)

    Nickerson managed to accumulate quite a nice fortune in his day by doing something really simple....buy rental properties, renovating them, and then holding them as rentals. I can only imagine how well you would have done had you begun this process back at the "peak" in the 1970's.

    Oh, by the way, you might be interested to know that there is a bull market going on in Nickerson's books. Since you still have one, and presumably it's still fairly unused :D....chances are you could make some good money on the book itself. Some are selling for in excess of $50 from what I hear. Check the link:

    http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=378&item=4515436077&rd=1&ssPageName=WDVW

    OldTrader
     
    #101     Jan 7, 2005
  2. Steve, where do you live? I am asking because I think the location is the most important part of the topic under discussion.
     
    #102     Jan 7, 2005
  3. i think the extent of what people did to their homes during this past decade (renovations), is incredible. around here, there are 5 or more home depots within 10 miles from my house. not only that but 2 or more lowes. i say "or more" because new stores keep popping up...
     
    #103     Jan 7, 2005
  4. #104     Jan 7, 2005
  5. 5 HD's w/in 10 miles radius. That is unbelievable.
    Where do you live?


     
    #105     Jan 7, 2005
  6. new jersey... btw this is no exaggeration.

    -edit-
    i just checked on the homedepot.com site
    and counted 9 in a 20 mile radius.. hah.

    ...

    around newark, there are 9 in only a 6 mile radius..
    and these 9 do not even overlap the ones near me.

    this is probably because of the pop density though.
     
    #106     Jan 7, 2005
  7. I live in NJ too, NYC metro area.
    Yes there is 5 w/in 10 mile radius. 2 in Manhattan...1 Seacaucus, 1 Long Island City, One in Jersey City..
     
    #107     Jan 7, 2005
  8. This is a fascinating thread.

    It is amazing to me how many buyers or investors are lured to buy at tops. However, these same folks, quite often, are not interested in RE when it tanks and there are bargains to be had. In fact the best time to buy is when nobody wants RE and it is a buyers market.

    It is so much like stocks.

    Of course, there are homeowners and RE investors and they are very different buyers. Different priorities.

    This site is called Elite Trader. I would expect most investor types to look for bottoms and low value basing periods to get the best return on their money.

    To KC, you can build a home to your sense of what quality is. I've done customs where the cost is no factor. By the way, Double 2X4 walls will give you an advantage over one 2X6 exterior wall.

    You'll see very few 24" OC spacing of studs in todays building and none are allowed on exterior walls.

    Romex is a wonderful product that allows a buyer to get upgraded wiring at a great cost saving. Conduit is very expensive, but nice 50 yrs down the road. Conduit is very rare in 100 yr old homes. Grounding is also rare in older homes.

    Older homes are a romantic deal. Homewoners are shocked, as well as some contractors, at the cost of rehab.

    A 2X4 has a nominal 3-1/2 width. 2X10s are not used much anymore because of cost and lack of span ability. Also, they shrink and cause floor squeaks. A 2X10 can shrink in depth, 1" quite often.
     
    #108     Jan 9, 2005
  9. Oh boy KC, just read your whole post on older homes. Did you ever here of the catalogue home of about 100 yrs ago? Sears did a lot of them. One could buy the whole package real cheap and slap it up. So many looked alike because they were. Out of the same catalogues. Not as many left now. Didn't stand that long or look very good.

    And building codes were almost non-existant. Many homeowners nailed those puppies up themselves. The rehab over the yrs was incredible.

    You're right, a home depreciates. The one we tore down had about 50K work done to hold in up in the 60s cause it was condemned. Neighbor told me. And it was still a mess.

    You're also right about a builder (today, anyday) putting the absolute min. in a new home for spec. But that is more than was required 100 yrs ago. You don't see the cheap houses built then because they fell apart and were torn down. What is left is the best or best cared for. They usually look good on the outside cause of the brick (fire prevention).

    I'll just answer these quick and the answers are general and there are exceptions in any era.

    Old houses were built with 2X4s. Outside walls usually 2 layers of brick. Soft sand inside, and fired facing out. This is not up to code today. Best wall is double 2X4 so you have an air gap for the house to breath and be better insulated. Less mold too. Only problem is to solve fire blocking issue.

    Floor joists or TJIs are the norm for most projects because of span and warranty issues. I still like Doug Fir 2X10s or 12s.

    I hated OSB when it came out, but must admit it is better than plywood. I finally switched over. OSB is stronger in 2 directions and doesn't require the same cross bracing as ply. because of xtra structural integrity. But it is slippery and eats up the hands.

    The fake wood decking is some super stuff. Much better than cedar or redwood.

    For walls I like stucco or brick. I don't like pressboard. Too cheap, short life.

    Pressure treated lumber on concrete is superior to the old wood sills.

    Wiring has just gotten better and better. No conduit 100 yrs ago in Res. Bronx cable sometimes used, but no ground wire. Uncovered rag wire from 100 yrs ago was a real fire hazard, squirrels, heat, accidents, etc.

    Question 1. No. Most buyers not savvy enough or care enough to pay the price.

    2. Yes. Remember upgraded building codes though.

    3. Heck NO. Not in this for charity.

    3a. Not many homes handed down to kids in the mobile US. But I have seen some and they are excellent. Beautiful work that costs way too much today. Some craftsmen were much better then than now, especially tile and plaster/stucco. Look at our crews now.??? Pretty sad.

    4. Spec homes have been built for a real long time. Many specs 100 yrs ago. Maybe most homes. I don't know.

    The really nice old homes you see were built by wealthier people. They may even look modest today, but back then they were the upper middle class or highend.

    I'm no fan of tract homes. But if that is what the avg. public can afford then??

    I build customs and highend. Much more satisfying. Tract homes are just numbers and money machines. The intense building codes keeps builders pretty honest. Most of the glitz is on the surface in most homes. A middle class tract home is pretty good really. You'll get a solid 50 yrs before much goes wrong structurally. Fix up is easier now too, more access.
     
    #109     Jan 9, 2005
  10. lol, too funny...
     
    #110     Jan 9, 2005