i saw this article and wondered what you thought. http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3782 my opinion in relation to supply is that as soon as the baby boomers die there will be a surplus of homes.
about 4.3 million people are born in the US every year. About the same number are turning 18 every year and want to move out of their parents houses. All those kids pushing their way into the rental market, pushes up the rent prices which in turn makes the older generations decide its cheaper or about the same price to buy as to rent which in turn pushes the real estate prices up. True the baby boomers will die, but right now for every 13.82 people born, 8.52 people die every year. So with a population of 307 million that means there are about 1.8 million extra every year.
Actually, at the end of that article it states, "The US, on the other hand, is growing and has already reached that floor. US housing prices will stabilise and then resume growing again soon." Where as Japan is experiencing negative population growth and the average age of their population keeps increasing.
You have to take a net inflow of people into the US as a result of immigration into account too. Ideally, they're well-educated instead of illiterate.
if the economy deteriorates will immigrants go to america. i read some news reports saying some cannot get jobs and are leaving. is that true.
True, but 20 of them live in one apartment so I don't think it's a factor related to the increased demand for housing. That includes the well-educated immigrants too. I personally know of an Indian medical doctor who recently had a condo built in Chicago, near old-town. He paid $700k to have it built, and he lives with 13 people. Mostly his kids, his wife, his parents, and two cousins. That's $50k a piece for a 1300 square foot condo.
Even if so, houses are and continue to be built. Earl Nightingale said it once some 25 years ago that for very building now, next to it, a new one must be built.
Per Krugman's blog from awhile ago, Japanâs recovery, again <IMG SRC=http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/japan%20recovery.png> Investment as a share of GDP had crapped out for some time. They were too busy playing with themselves to lure investment, foreignor immigration or any anything to get the country going again. Timely: Why Japan Isnât Rising Amazed people still like to cite this country as guide for home prices.