In a range there's no time to wait for a RET. We wait for the first RET once we leave the range. To me we tried up and down both waves being equidistant meaning the trend is in doubt. Leaving this range could be the beginning of a trend. Waiting for the RET after the break will let us know. A and B both happen within the range. If trading ranges rejecting the bottom at C would be the best place to buy versus buying the tops but it's a tight range and only 7 or so points to the top. That's how I see it.
Here is my take on the NQ yesterday. Large chart is the 1 minute, and the inset is the 5 minute with a yellow box drawn to highlight the time frame in question. From 4 AM 'til the open, price stayed in a channel, and spent more time testing the lower limit while staying well below the upper limit. An emotional open saw price test first the lower limit, then the upper limit, quickly followed by yet another test of the lower limit. That was a lot of testing of the lower limit over the prior five hours, and yet sellers found buyers time after time. On the one minute chart, a buy stop one tick above the prior bar for a long at the first vertical arrow at 9:38. This long was based upon it being a retrace from the higher high, as well as a successful test of the overnight channel's lower limit. A lower high at the upper limit for a stop at 9:43 one tick below the low of the prior bar. A higher low and another lower high means price is choppy and the market indecisive, so no trades again until the oversold lower low at 9:52 found enthusiastic buyers below the channel. First entry one tick above that bar's high at 9:53, second entry on the first retrace 9:58, third chance to get on board with a long at 10:06 on the retrace following the break of the opening range's high and test of prior selling level as a buying level. And I know there will be those who say, "All very easy in hindsight," which is of course true. Anyone can look at a chart at the end of the day and point to the best entries and exits. But except for the yellow highlight which I added for this post, what you see drawn on the five minute chart were lines I drew yesterday. The channel was drawn well in advance of the open, and the demand line drawn later in the day was drawn at 11:10 AM. I also had a short at 10:49 and a stop and reverse to long I took at 10:56 - both of which amounted to more or less scratch trades. I entered a short at 11:51, and there were an abundance of second chance short entries between 12:15 and 12:28. I used what had happened to the left to guide me in interpreting what was happening at the right, and I managed to cover at 12:50. If you look at the afternoon low, and then go back to the left, you will see that reversal took place more or less right at the midpoint of the opening range. Yes, I understand that this is all hindsight. Nice thread, db, happy to see you posting fresh again
"Finding the midpoint of the range – where the largest number of trades are occurring -- may be useful since price sometimes ricochets off the midpoint, or launches itself off the midpoint if it has settled there."