House of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

Discussion in 'Journals' started by dbphoenix, Nov 22, 2014.

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  1. Gringo

    Gringo

    Time to wake up for me!
     
    #551     Feb 20, 2015
  2. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Wake up?
     
    #552     Feb 20, 2015
  3. Gringo

    Gringo

    Market is at a location where I might get an entry. Time to stay alert. I have been waiting patiently.
     
    #553     Feb 20, 2015
  4. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    I wouldn't be too eager. The ES has a hundred points to go before it reaches the upper limit of its trend channel, and it's unlikely that the NQ will reverse while the ES is rising. Not that the ES is required to reach 2200. So, yes, be alert. Just don't plan on a big, dramatic reversal on Monday.

    Nice downside target, though. 400+pts.

    Note: I should point out that the NQ became overbought by a hundred points in November. If it does so again, that will give the ES some leeway to reach its target. But, as I said, this isn't all going to happen Monday.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2015
    #554     Feb 20, 2015
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  5. Scaleout.Scalper

    Scaleout.Scalper Guest

    ^NDX (Weekly)  Week 50_2008 - Week 8_2015.jpg
     
    #555     Feb 20, 2015
  6. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    A nice try, but drawn incorrectly, in hindsight.
     
    #556     Feb 21, 2015
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  7. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    As far as the ES goes, this is all wrong, and I apologize. I don't follow the ES closely. I watch the quote out of the corner of my eye to see if the NQ and ES are coupled or not (most of the last few days, they have been very much uncoupled), but I generally chart the ES in the same timeframe as that in which I chart the NQ, currently from last June, for quick-and-dirty comparison purposes. But here we are at the upper limit of the NQ channel again, for the first time since November, and I've been re-evaluating the situation by also re-examining the ES, and I see how sloppy I've been with regard to the ES.

    Going back to the beginning of this leg of the ES weekly trend, it's not difficult to see that it starts two years earlier, after the summer correction. Using that channel, which is longer and therefore trumps the shorter, the ES is for all practical purposes at the upper limit right now. That it's been trading at or above the mean of this channel for a year is unusual, but though the ES has been tugging at its leash ever since, it's never broken out of its channel the way the NQ did and taken off in a more "exuberant" direction. Therefore, if one follows the rules laid down by Wyckoff, and God knows they've done well by those who've followed them, he has to be at least prepared for a return trip to the median of this channel (one can't really call it a "mean" at this point) at 2000 before we reach 2200. This is not to say that both the NQ and ES can't become overbought just as they were in November, but there's a difference between focus and tunnel vision, and the prepared trader is far less vulnerable to surprise.

    The reversal in the NQ, therefore, may come sooner than I thought, and there'll be no rest for the weary.
     
    #557     Feb 21, 2015
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  8. Scaleout.Scalper

    Scaleout.Scalper Guest

    Lmao you newbie it is a perfect uptrend channel that broke out and did 100% expansion, backtesting old resistance as support as it broke out, therefore creating the new mid line of the new expanded uptrend channel before its new resistance line.

    Hindsight my ass, ive had it for years in my weekly. Learn newbie learn.
     
    #558     Feb 21, 2015
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  9. VPhantom

    VPhantom

    I assume you drew it in October 2011, based on where the lines begin and the need for an initial two lows. How did you know the channel's height back then? Did you draw it with an expectation of the range doubling in the direction of the trend?
     
    #559     Feb 21, 2015
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    :D
     
    #560     Feb 21, 2015
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